The problem with international breaks is that they ruin the flow of the season. We spend so long looking forward to the big kick-off, and then just three games later watch in frustration as largely uncompetitive internationals take over. And, inevitably, result in injuries we could really do without.

Take tonight’s European Championship qualifiers. Twenty two games, and almost all were entirely predictable. Only two results raised eyebrows – Portugal’s 4-4 draw with Cyprus and France’s defeat at home to Belarus – but both nations have a myriad of issues that contributed to the failures. The fact is – there are now so many poor footballing nations in Europe (and so many nations full stop) that 80% of the matches are walkovers, ensuring that only a tiny fraction of games are appealing enough to retain our interest. The majority of the time we simply count down the days until the real football resumes. It is a sad indictment of the national game.

Of course, club football can be ugly too, most notably around the closing of the transfer window. Never mind that Wenger has tackled one of last season’s problems by bringing in a target man and a genuine aerial threat, or that we have genuine competition for places at centre back again. No, ignore all that – he didn’t pay over the odds for a 37 year old keeper that has never before attracted the attention of a top club, so he must be ruining our great club. Sack him, sack him now.

At least, that is the opinion of an ever growing number, fuelled into a frenzy by a series of hit-grabbing blogs (and, sadly, some mainstream newspapers fighting for a slice of the pie). Controversy sucks people in, leading many to the conclusion that an outlandish opinion is better than a sensible one. Balance is hard to come by.

My opinion? I’m disappointed that we didn’t sign a keeper, but then I was disappointed that Schwarzer was the extent of our ambition in the first place, as I don’t think he adds anything in terms of quality – all he would have been is a clean slate. The difficulty comes when attempting to name a keeper who wouldhave been an inspiring signing. Three names are bandied around at will – Lloris, Hart and Given. Do I really need to explain why all three are impossible recruits?

I understand the frustration of those who wanted a new number one, but what I cannot fathom is why some are suggesting our team is in ruins because Almunia will continue. Those writing off our chances clearly don’t look at our rivals – that they have weaknesses is an oft missed fact.

It is surely time to look forward. The Fabianski ‘trial’ in pre-season is over, and by comparison Almunia is playing like Gordon Banks. To be fair to Manuel, he has so far escaped the glut of goalkeeping errors that have littered the opening weeks of the season. Long may that continue.

Take a step back, and realise that our summer business has been pretty good overall. And we haven’t exactly started the season badly either.

Three down, one to go.

We began this summer with a number of holes in the squad. Up front, we needed to guarantee never to ask Arshavin to play as a target man again, while at the back, the departures of Gallas, Silvestre, Campbell and Senderos resulted in a variety of reactions, although the common theme was that replacements were required.

One by one, Wenger has eradicated the issues. Chamakh gives us power and technique up front, while also being the much vaunted aerial threat, particularly from the delicious Van Persie corners that usually fly across the face of the goal while our team stands waiting on the edge of the box. Koscielny has impressed at the back, and with the signing of Sebastien Squillaci, we have genuine competition for places in central defence, a position previously occupied exclusively by Vermaelen and Gallas out of sheer necessity.

In particular, it is encouraging to think that although Vermaelen is a shoo-in, it isn’t clear which of the three other options will join him on a regular basis, a healthy situation for any squad playing at the highest level.

The one outstanding issue is, of course, behind our defence, where confidence is shot and uncertainty is high. Neither Almunia or Fabianski can be stupid enough to be unaware that the majority want them replaced, an unpleasant feeling for any player looking to move positively through the early season.

As if their plight wasn’t bad enough, Almunia (assuming he is selected) will be facing the might of Blackburn at Ewood Park tomorrow lunchtime. And just in case you were wondering, I use the word ‘might’ not as a compliment to their play but more of a reference to their ‘pinball wrestling’ approach.

Predictably, Sam Allardyce has come out the day before the game, reminding everyone of the victories he has enjoyed over Wenger in the past, as if the continual message will stop the press actually looking into said record. While it is easy to get the impression his teams have defeated us on a regular basis (largely because he keeps claiming so), it simply isn’t the case. Five wins in 21 games, and most of them were years ago with Bolton.

Of course, you can point to the 2-1 defeat at Ewood Park in May, but that was a match with nothing riding on it, we had just had our title challenge ended, and were missing Almunia, Clichy, Vermaelen, Gallas, Cesc, Song, Rosicky and Arshavin. Essentially, the bulk of tomorrow’s team. And the previous games against Blackburn? A 6-2 win at home earlier in the season, two 4-0 wins in 2008/9, and a win and a draw in 2007/8.

In other words, May’s game was a blip on the series of thumpings we routinely dish out whenever Blackburn appear on the fixture list. With Paul Robinson still in goal and approaching a half century of goals conceded to us in his career, I see no reason for that not to continue tomorrow.

Of course we have to be wary. Allardyce knows our weaknesses and will look to exploit them, having put in the pre-match groundwork to dress up their approach as a tactic to be proud of:

“When we aerially bombard any team with our quality, skill and ability, we cause them problems.”

You’ll note the section I’ve crossed out, being as it is entirely superfluous. And inaccurate. All Blackburn do, all Allardyce’s teams have ever done, is bombard you with elbows, digs in the ribs, sneaky fouls and early enforcers. We know what to expect, we have to deal with it.

It is a good early test of the summer’s mantra – player after player insisted we must be up for the fight this season. This would be a good time to start.

And it is with that early season confidence that I’m punting on a victory by three or more goals, at a healthy 15/4 with Sportingbet. Let’s hope by mid-afternoon, the line on the ticker to the right has gone green.

Enjoy the game.

Those of you with a keen eye (or a lonely RSS reader) may have noticed I’ve been strangely absent of late, and you would be right – work has taken over spectacularly, and I have just enough time to get home, eat, sleep and get up to start again. All great fun (seriously), but the blog has taken a bit of a back seat.

Fortunately, I haven’t missed as much in the last ten days as I would on other occasions in the season. Elevation to third in the league has allowed us valuable breaks while Spurs fight for a Champions League spot, and the latter stages of the transfer window are hardly the most delightful times in the calendar.

But we’ve still been relatively busy, and I wanted to jot down my thoughts in concise form. So here goes:

The 6-0 drubbing of Blackpool

Football matches should always take precedence over the rumour mill, and after a lacklustre performance at Liverpool, particularly in the second half, it was fantastic to see such a terrific team effort against a side still on a high after their spectacular first day success. Granted, Blackpool’s defence was woeful, and the red card killed the game, but we were clinical, didn’t let up when 3-0 ahead, and if the pundits can salivate over Chelsea’s 6-0 wins over relegation cannon fodder, so can we of ours.

Rosicky

Four years after signing, his class is still apparent. His Arsenal career will never reach the heights intended when Wenger shelled out around £7m before the 2006 World Cup, but to have a player of his quality available when Cesc and Nasri are missing is a rare treat. Moreover, he understands his squad role perfectly, and will not complain if back on the bench this weekend.

Walcott

I agree with Alan Hansen that Walcott often makes the wrong decision with his final ball. But to bring up that criticism after the lad’s just put in the best performance of his career is churlish in the extreme. And ignore the two bad crosses Hansen insisted on showing – any flying winger putting in ball after ball is going to get some wrong. Walcott has areas to improve in, but why he has received this level of critique by the age of 21 is beyond me. He is miles ahead of where many others were at this stage.

Blackpool

I really hope they stay up. I don’t think they will.

The ‘Big Four’

…is now a Big Five. Yes, Liverpool were hammered by Man City, but they will be stronger this year, mark my words. But while some pundits will rejoice at the added competition for Champions League spots, there will be a massive gap down to Spurs (likely to focus on Europe) and Everton.

Squillaci

I have to say, I’m somewhat surprised by the Frenchman’s imminent arrival, but delighted all the same. I thought Wenger would bring in a central defender (he hardly had a choice, did he?), but I figured it would be a 24-25 year old impressing in Europe. Squillaci has just turned 30, so is a slightly un-Wenger-like signing, but we’ve been crying out for a ready made defender used to challenging for and winning honours. He fits the bill, and should be the last of our outfield purchases.

The keeper situation

Much cloudier. With every passing day, I suspect more and more that Schwarzer will not be arriving. If Fulham force him to stay, he cannot afford to sulk – he career will simply tail off. We don’t hold the cards here, as we did with Cesc.

Cesc

Speaking of whom, why are sites still running with stories that he’ll be off to Barcelona this week?

And that is about it. The blog will be more regular over the coming weeks, and as the football ramps up, you can expect more frequent updates.

Until then.

Liverpool 1 (Ngog 46) Arsenal 1 (Reina og 90)
(Premiership)

The footballing obituary was being written. Manuel Almunia, recalled to the side after Lukasz Fabianski had so woefully thrown away his chance to prove himself in pre-season, had been beaten at his near post by Ngog’s fizzer in the opening moments of the second half. At the other end, Reina had dealt well with a Vermaelen piledriver, an excellent Walcott free kick, and most notably, gotten fingertips on a late Rosicky effort that had seemed our best chance of escaping Anfield with a point. The words ‘tale of two keepers’ were on lips up and down the country.

And then Reina proved that even the best can make absolute howlers. Rosicky’s cross looked innocuous, but he lost the ball in the sun, and Skrtel stopped tracking Chamakh, who stole in to nudge the ball against the post. It seemed the chance had gone when it bounced back into Reina’s arms, but he contrived to spill it into the corner and a point was rescued. After his part in the Cesc-Barca-shirt ‘prank’ last month, it seems karma was there to give him an early season kick in the teeth.

It was an equaliser that had looked unlikely. A decent first half performance lacked the chances that the impressive interplay deserved, but Liverpool hadn’t troubled us too much either. But on the stroke of half time, Joe Cole, who had been frustrated by tenacious midfield work on our part, lunged into Koscielny and got his marching orders. The red card was correct – Cole had jumped off the floor and gone in recklessly – but it was nothing like the sort of malicious challenges we’ve been on the receiving end of over the past few years. Credit to Cole who checked on Koscielny at half time.

It was a turning point, but for all the wrong reasons. Previously, we were battling hard, engaged in a tight tussle with a strong team looking to put last year’s troubles behind them. But it seemed the man advantage caused our players to switch off and coast, an infuriating attitude that failed to disappear even after a fired up Liverpool took the lead. Loose passing on the edge of our area saw Mascherano play in Ngog, whose finish was emphatic. As I said earlier though, from the angle he was striking it, Almunia will have been disappointed to be beaten at his near post. Good hit though.

We expected a response, but it failed to materialise. Arshavin looked leggy and disinterested at times, while Diaby was his usual mix of impressive touches and infuriating lack of concentration. The speed of touch of the first half was replaced by a group of players unable to string any incisive passes together.

In fairness, Liverpool defended exceptionally well with their ten men, and it was only going to be a magical moment or a mistake that let us back in, Rosicky provided the magic but was denied in stunning fashion, before Reina went from hero to zero in an instant with his late gaffe.

There were plenty of positives and negatives to take from the game. Starting with the down side – we looked worrying devoid of ideas in the second half, Almunia is clearly still suffering from a lack of confidence (witness his two flaps in the first half), while some of the lazy play has yet to be eradicated from our game. Wilshere looked raw, although at eighteen that should be expected and forgiven.

But while there has been an overwhelmingly negative reaction to the game, there were bright points. Nasri was excellent in the first half, Eboue lively too. Chamakh led the line well against an organised defence, and we looked a threat from corners for a change. But the biggest plus point was Koscielny. I wasn’t alone in having doubts about his slight frame in pre-season, but he was immense at the back today, even coming back to play the second half with a giant lump on his leg from Cole’s challenge. His only blight was the extremely harsh second yellow he picked up at the end for handball, despite Ngog’s very deliberate handball earlier in the half not resulting in a card. It smacked of a jobsworth referee looking to even the game up, and was wholly unnecessary.

We have issues, there can be no doubting it. The fear at Koscielny’s injury was telling of the lack of backup available, and we don’t have a keeper who imbues confidence into the defence. But at the end of the day, while the point was fortunate, it was an excellent result considering we were without Cesc, Van Persie (until late on) and Song, three of our most critical players. A loss would have been a poor way to start the season, a draw in such a tough fixture much less so.

Conclusions? With a keeper and a centre back, we could be a fearsome proposition. Over to you, Arsene.

Before every season, I resist predicting where each team will end up, as the only possible outcome is to look a little silly nine months later. But then I read the views of the ‘experts’, the pundits who, not content with irritating us throughout the World Cup, decide to make banal and predictable assertions for the campaign ahead. So I always end up doing my own to counter them.

Essentially, after years of rolling my eyes as the columnists claimed this was Liverpool’s year for the title, and Spurs’ time to break into the coveted top four, I’ve grown weary. This year is no better – I’m sick of seeing Man City tipped to be crowned champions in May. It won’t happen folks.

So here we go. I won’t explain the positioning of every team, especially those bunched in the middle of the table, but here are my predictions. They have to be better than Lawrenson’s, right?

1. Chelsea – I would love to be wrong, but in a summer of few changes amongthe biggest teams, Chelsea still look to have the strongest squad. With Essien back and fit, they are rightly favourites for the title. But if Drogba gets injured (or grumpy), all could change – their backup is poor.

2. Man Utd – Getting older and getting weaker is the official verdict, but they had two major flaws last season – lack of cover at the back and up front. They may not have solved the former, but a quick look at the other top sides suggest no-one is better off, but Hernandez will offer better backup to Rooney than Owen ever could.

3. Arsenal - For me, we’re stronger up front than before – Eduardo looked a broken man last season and Chamakh offers something new – but weaker at the back. Silvestre was awful, but Gallas and Sol offered something that Koscielny would do well to replicate this early in his top flight career. It is tempting to believe we’ll be stronger simply because we can’t possible be as injury-struck as last year, but already we have been hit by the curse, with practically no midfielders available tomorrow. As many agree, two signings could change everything. One keeper, one centre back, and the puzzle may be complete. Without them, we’ll be entertaining but ultimately trophyless.

4. Liverpool – After years of tipping them for the title, the pundits have flipped entirely the other way and are unanimously writing Liverpool off. As always, I disagree with them - Hodgson has built his reputation on taking a group of players and making them perform above themselves. They are still reliant on a few stars, but I imagine by the end of the season there will be a couple of squad players standing out as they could not under Benitez. It is what Hodgson does best.

5. Man City - Some tip them for the title, almost all tip them for the top four. But consider their striking options – Adebayor, Tevez, Balotelli, Robinho. All named in their squad, and all talented in the extreme. But the egos in that squad are astonishing – Adebayor has ideas way above his station, Tevez gets into spats easily, Balotelli is a walking nightmare and Robinho openly wants to stay at Santos. City will start well as all the players pull in the same direction, but I predict a dressing room meltdown before Christmas.

6. Everton - Year on year, Everton improve, and this should be no different. For all our injury complaints last season, Everton were equally crippled. Expect them to be up with Liverpool and City until late on.

7. Spurs - Redknapp wants to build on last year’s fourth place and cement their position in the elite. No chance. Spurs will find out this season how difficult it is to play competitive Premiership games three days after Champions League games, and you can bet that those glamorous cup ties will take precedence. I could see them getting out of the group stage – they are a cup team after all – but their league position will suffer as a result.

8. Blackburn - At this point, there is likely to be a huge gap. The top seven are streets ahead of the rest, but like it or not, Allardyce’s men could be the best of the rest.

9. Aston Villa – Overachieved under O’Neill. Losing players.

10. Sunderland
11. Birmingham
12. Newcastle
13. Stoke
14. West Ham
15. Bolton

(collectively known as the mid-table obscurity group)

16. Fulham - the gulf in managerial ability between Hodgson and Hughes will be apparent – look at Fulham’s squad and you marvel at the job done over the past few years. No matter what Al Fayed claims, they are going backwards now. And under Hughes, losing all their popularity at the same time.

17. Wolves – Staying up by the narrowest margin. Boring everyone in sight.

18. Wigan - I like Martinez, but I can’t see how Wigan can survive with their squad. Anyone who feels the loss of Titus Bramble is in trouble.

19. WBA – Up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down. See you in two years.

20. Blackpool – Will be highly entertaining, but if Holloway sticks to his principles and attacks, they will be annihilated on a regular basis. A few surprise wins here and there, and a fun ride while it lasts, but they are ultimately doomed.

As ever, feel free to agree/disagree/make your own predictions in the comments.

After the spectacular betting success of the World Cup (that £0.28 profit was hard earned, I’ll have you know), I’ve replaced the betting bar to the right with a Premiership ticker. You’ll notice some bets up there already, essentially backing up what I’ve said above. All bets, as always, are with Sportingbet, and you can keep track on Twitter here (or follow me generally here).

1. Liverpool to finish in the top four – 6/4.Forgot City, Liverpool will be better this year with Hodgson.

2. Newcastle to win Premiership handicap – 14/1. The Premiership handicap is where every team is given a certain number of starting points, ranging from Chelsea (0), United (2), Arsenal (8) all the way up to Blackpool (57). Newcastle have a 41 point start, and I think they’ll do just fine.

3. Arsenal to win the FA Cup – 8/1. What, you expected me not to make a loyal bet?

4. Van Persie to be Premiership top scorer – 10/1. All depends on his injuries – he was on course last season until he got crippled. Stay fit and this one’s a winner.

5. West Ham to win at Villa – 14/5. One for the first day of the season – Villa are in a state of flux and Grant’s West Ham could surprise them today.

And that’s it. Enjoy!