2010 promises to be an exciting year. At the halfway point of the season, we’re in a three way battle for the title, have a very winnable looking tie in the Champions League, and are about to kick off our FA Cup campaign. Some of our players look to be coming of age, and the progression of youngsters means that we have real competition for places (in certain positions, anyway).

I’m not much a resolution person, so instead I’ll start the year by making some predictions for the year ahead. All of the following top 3s are obviously subjective, and I’m sure you’ll have your own views, so feel free to have your say in the comments. Enjoy.

3 Arsenal teenagers set to shine

3. Jay Emmanuel-Thomas. By the end of the year, I think we’ll have heard a lot more about the man who captained us to Youth Cup success last season. He has a battle on his hands to get near the first team, but the Carling Cup is his platform to shine, and he has already been on the first team bench on a couple of occasions.

2. Jack Wilshere. In the summer, he probably would have topped this list, and he still could be the future of English football. But Wenger is being extremely cautious with him, wise given how quickly youngsters are judged, especially hyped ones (Walcott and Vela being current examples). He only turned 18 a couple of days ago, and his integration needs to be slow for his own sake. May go on loan to Burnley, although an Owen Coyle exit to Bolton might ruin that deal.

1. Aaron Ramsey. Sometimes a manager intends to gradually introduce a young player to first team football. And sometimes performances dictate that they are in every match day squad. Ramsey is a standout player at club and international level already, and having only just turned 19 that is an incredible achievement. Getting into Arsenal’s midfield is no mean feat, and 2010 could be the year his secures a spot for good.

3 Arsenal players to leave the club

3. Mark Randall. Some young players shine at reserve level but never make the step up, and I suspect Randall might end up on that list this year. An undoubted star of the second string, he has never really made the first team impact you would expect, and at 20 he is older than a lot of his midfield competition. A move to the lower half of the Premiership awaits.

2. William Gallas. This time last year, after being stripped of the captaincy, he probably would have topped this list, but he got his head down and has produced his best form for Arsenal, while forming an excellent partnership with Vermaelen. But his contract is up at the end of the season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him move back to France after the World Cup. His exit would now leave a massive gap at the back.

1. Phillippe Senderos. I have a confession – I like Senderos, and I rate him, but clearly something is amiss, and it would be a huge surprise to see him here next season. A January exit isn’t out of the question, especially with him keen to get football before the World Cup.

3 Premiership managers to lose their jobs

3. Gianfranco Zola. It is more likely that the Italian will resign that be sacked, but he continues to work in conditions that conspire against him – no money, broken promises from owners, and general turmoil that was too much for his predecessor, Alan Curbishley. He might walk.

2. Rafa Benitez. It doesn’t matter how badly Liverpool do, he won’t be sacked before the end of the season – the club have a history of being loyal to their managers. But if Liverpool fail to make the Champions League, which looks increasingly likely as their dependence on Torres means he isn’t being allowed to return to full fitness, he may be gone in the summer.

1. Phil Brown. Seemingly on his way out a couple of months ago, Jimmy Bullard almost single handedly saved his job, but with the club still 19th and the good start to last season a long distant memory, he’ll be gone by March.

3 tedious Arsenal transfer rumours that won’t happen in 2010

3. Klaas Jan Huntelaar. Championship/Football Manager has a lot to answer for. It seems that decent players in the game become constant rumoured signings, and immediately appear on fans’ wishlists, despite the likes of Guarin, Bakayoko and Bakircioglü not turning out to be all that. Huntelaar scored plenty in Holland, but then so did Dirk Kuyt and Mateja Kezman. Since leaving the Dutch league, his record is unspectacular, and he barely plays anymore.

2. Shay Given. Yes, he’s a good keeper. Yes, he is probably better than any we have. No, Wenger has no intention of signing him.

1. Yaya Toure. For five years, the midfielder was rumoured to be joining us, despite Wenger deciding not to make a move after two separate trials. It all seemed based on his brother being at the club, so why the continued stories now that Kolo has disappeared up to Eastlands?

Note: I didn’t include Chamakh, because he might actually arrive in the summer.

That’s about it for now. If you want to add yours, feel free to do so below. Happy New Year.

Nineteen games into the league season, nineteen to go, and unlike last year, we’re well and truly in the title hunt. With the year turning, I thought it a good time to see just how how squad is performing so far. I won’t be marking the individual players, but the positions, in order to see our relative strengths and weaknesses.

Goalkeeping

It would be fair to say that Almunia hasn’t had a season to remember so far. Seemingly dropped after early wobbles, he has been hit and miss since his return, the highlight being a penalty save against Hull, but with too many unnecessary punches and flaps at crosses and generally haphazard displays, the defence seems to have lost an element of faith in him.

Elsewhere, the depth is great – Fabianski will probably have further chances to impress in the cup, Mannone was stunning against Fulham, and Szczesny is impressing on loan. Almunia has plenty of backup, but is not currently performing as we know he can.

Mark: C- (Almunia to continue, but must improve)

Central defence

What a signing Vermaelen has been. His attitude to defending is spot on – even at 4-0 he hates to let a clean sheet slip away. Tough in the tackle and aggressive in the air, he is also something of a revelation going forward, possessing a thunderous left foot shot. He has formed a superb partnership with Gallas, and both are ever present in the Premiership. There have been hiccups along the way, but the pairing is as good as anyone has.

Those two would probably earn the position an A, but the problem is the backup. One injury brings in the untrusted Senderos or the perhaps even less trusted Silvestre, and Djourou’s career is also stalling through injuries of his own. If the first choice pair miss out for a while, we suddenly look incredibly weak at the back.

Mark: B+ (Sign a backup, let Senderos go)

Full Back

At left back, we are both blessed and cursed. Every player we have there gets injured, but on the flip side we seem to have a never ending queue of talented youngsters ready to step up. Clichy has been out for ages, Gibbs impressed and then picked up his own injury, now Traore has stepped up admirably.

On the right, Sagna and Eboue are a good pair. The former is a better defender, the latter adds more going forward against teams looking to park the bus. If our full backs could cross, we’d be great.

Mark: A- (Only danger is a Sagna injury while Eboue is in Angola)

Defensive Midfield

Some would hand our player of the season award to Cesc for his work so far, but while the captain has been terrific, for me he is pipped to the post by Alex Song, without doubt the most improved player of 2009. He has been nothing short of awesome, but like some other positions the worry is a lack of backup. Denilson, Diaby, Ramsey and even Nasri have been tried, but none fit the bill as well as the Cameroonian.

Denilson is probably the most likely replacement, but his injury may mean Ramsey gets a lot more game time while Song is away.

Mark: B+ (Song is an A/A+, but we knew we needed backup for January and we haven’t got it)

Attacking Midfield

Until the last few games, Diaby has been a disappointment, but he seems to be putting his troubles behind him, and a haul of five goals suggests he has added a goal threat to his game. Denilson has scored a couple of pearlers, Nasri has bite and skill, Rosicky still has the eye for a pass and finish, but the undoubted star is our captain, Cesc Fabregas. Into double figures on the goalscoring charts, plenty of assists, and a true match winner, it is remarkable to think he is only 22. What a player he is.

We have suffered injury after injury to our attacking midfielders, yet we have no trouble filling those roles. Our depth here is superb.

Mark: A (Plenty of quality, plenty of depth, and plenty of youngsters knocking on the door)

Forwards

It looked like being the year of Robin Van Persie. Scoring for fun, feeling unstoppable, his goals were looking like being the spearhead of a title challenge. That we are still in the race despite his season being (probably) ended so prematurely is some achievement, but we have no-one capable of the goalscoring regularity of the Dutchman.

Arshavin is a match winner, but is struggling in the centre forward role, and should return to full effectiveness when he drops back behind a front man again, while Eduardo is woefully short of confidence. Vela looks timid, and while he is still a massive prospect, he hasn’t had a great few months, while Walcott and Bendtner are both fighting persistent injury problems.

With everyone fit, our forward line is absolutely terrifying. But right now the only fit strikers we have are horribly short of form and fitness.

Mark: B (Van Persie was heading us towards A+, but injury and loss of form elsewhere means we need to buy)

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So there we have it. The first team is as good as anyone’s, and our squad is deceptively deep. The issue remains that we are top heavy in certain positions – plenty of attacking midfielders but a paucity of central defenders, for example.

I think anything up to three signings would benefit this team, all up the spine. One of those is a defensive midfielder, but I don’t see that happening – Wenger wants to adapt a couple of his more attack-minded players to be able to play that role. So that leaves two positions – central defence and striker.

The former can be a one in, one out situation. I still rate Senderos, but Wenger clearly doesn’t, or already knows the Swiss is on his way, but he must be replaced. With Djourou still out for a while, having Silvestre as the only backup is potentially season-ruining. For me, the need for a defender is even more pressing than a front man.

That said, a striker would not go amiss. It would allow Arshavin to drop back, it will give us a new dimension, and with Bendtner still out for a few weeks, we lack height, power and variety up front.

The transfer window is now officially open, but that doesn’t mean we’ll be buying. If the right players aren’t available, we will remain as we are. But if they are, and Wenger can snaffle up a defender and a forward, we might have everything we need.

As a halfway feature, I thought I’d compare where we are now to where we were last year, but instead of being based on an arbitrary date, instead it is a direct comparison of matching fixtures. Comparing our position to last Christmas would be flawed, as we may have had an easier or trickier first half of the season, this instead shows us what we’ve gained and lost in the same set of games.

For purposes of comparison, the sides that finished 18th, 19th and 20th last season (Newcastle, Middlebrough and West Brom) have been replaced by the sides that came up in 1st, 2nd and via the playoffs (Wolves, Birmingham, Burnley) respectively.

Games we’ve gained three points compared to 08/09 (loss -> win)
Fulham (a), Hull (h), Aston Villa (h)

Games we’ve gained two points compared to 08/09 (draw -> win)
Everton (a), Spurs (h), Liverpool (a)

Games we’ve gained one point compared to 08/09 (loss -> draw)
None

Games we’ve matched the result of 08/09
Portsmouth (h), Man City (a), Wigan (h), Blackburn (h), Birmingham/Middlesbrough (h), Wolves/Newcastle (a), Chelsea (h), Stoke (h)

Games we’ve lost one point compared to 08/09 (draw-> loss)
Man Utd (a), Sunderland (a)

Games we’ve lost two points compared to 08/09 (win -> draw)
West Ham (a), Burnley/West Brom (a)

Games we’ve lost three points compared to 08/09 (win -> loss)
None

Overall, we’ve gained a total of nine points, mainly due to victories over Fulham, Hull and Villa, in fixtures we lost last season. We’ve also done better against the sides fighting for fourth, with wins over Spurs and Liverpool.

We finished with 72 points in May, so the nine we’ve already gained would take us to 81. With the league more open than ever, a total of around 85 would probably win it, which begs the question – how many more can we gain? Let’s look at the fixtures:

December – January
Portsmouth (a) – last season 3 pts, Bolton (h) – 3 pts, Everton (h) – 3 pts, Bolton (a) – 3 pts, Villa (a) – 1 pt, Man Utd (h) – 3 pts
Total 16/18 points

February
Chelsea (a) – 3 pts, Liverpool (h) – 1 pt, Sunderland (h) – 1 pt, Stoke (a) – 0 pts
Total 5/12 points

March
Burnley/West Brom(h) – 3 pts, Hull (a) – 3 pts, West Ham (h) – 1 pt, Birmingham/Middlesbrough (a) – 1 pt
Total 8/12 points

April
Wolves/Newcastle(h) – 3 pts, Spurs (a) – 1 pt, Wigan (a) – 3 pts, Man City (h) – 3 pts
Total 10/12 points

May
Blackburn (a) – 3 pts, Fulham (h) – 1 pt
Total 4/6 points

On the face of it, January and February seem to be enormously tricky months, but ironically those fixtures are those we had the most success in last season. A win at Chelsea, another at home to United, the double over Bolton and creditable draws against Villa and Liverpool were actually a great set of results that we perhaps didn’t appreciate at the time because of the daft losses intermingled with them.

One thing is for sure – if we pick up as many points in the January games as we did last season, we’ll be in a fantastic position. February then gives us the chance to put right some of last season’s failures – a single point from a pair of games with Sunderland and Stoke was a major disappointment.

We have left only one fixture that we lost last campaign, that awful display at Stoke. That fact alone suggests that we are more than capable of embarking on the sort of consistent run that defines champions. We’ve done a lot of the hard work, gaining nine points in the first half of the season. Another four or five, and we might be lifting the title in May.

We are moving in the right direction, no doubt about it.

As Arsenal fans we like to think of ourselves as proud of the way young players are developed by the club, patient with them as they progress through their inevitable raw phase, and then justified when they come out the other side shining.

Some make it all the way, some fall by the wayside, and we’ve become accustomed to seeing both sides of that particular coin. For every Cesc, there is an Owusu-Abeyie, for every Bendtner, a Lupoli. Players who, for whatever reason, never fulfilled their exciting promise, those early eye-catching days, and were eventually shipped off, many never to be seen on these shores again. Those that remained in England often dropped down the leagues, justifying the decision to let them go.

But sometimes I fear those judgements are made too soon. Not by the club, who are impressively loyal (and with mixed results – for every minute believing in a Song, time is also invested in an Aliadiere), but by every one of us, giving our opinions on the development of players from the minute they come on to our radar. For some with detailed knowledge, that can be from reserve football, but for most, that day comes when they get blooded in the Carling Cup for the first time.

An starring role in such a tie can be a double edged sword. On the one hand, it is proof to the player that they can make it, motivation to get to that level regularly, and it can be a wake up call to first teamers that a youngster is after their place. All good stuff. But on the flip side, it can raise expectations to an unrealistic level, with some expecting a string of performances at the same standard, a level of consistency no teenager is capable of, no matter how prodigiously gifted or driven.

Every young player goes through peaks and troughs. But in the era of 24 hour news, the peaks are magnified beyond hyperbole, putting even sharper contrast on the inevitable dips in progression, that period in any young career where it doesn’t come as naturally or easily. And that is where constant analysis is dangerous. Players can be written off in an instant, the victim of the media obsession with the ‘build them up, knock them down’ approach.

Look at the first team squad – Van Persie had people doubting whether he’d ever be fit enough, Eduardo and Rosicky suffer the same fate now. Walcott had many calling him overrated eighteen months ago, while Bendtner, Eboue, Song, Denilson and Diaby are all regular targets for the critics. Even Cesc bore the brunt for a month or so when he stepped into Vieira’s shoes. No one is safe.

Many of the players listed above battled past the doubters, and proved themselves. Some are still in that process. Others are more affected – Senderos springs to mind as a player so bereft of confidence, so shattered by criticism of mistakes, that he will never be the player he could have become. Touted as a future club captain when he was 20, did expectation and subsequent struggles destroy his chance?

Perhaps, but perhaps not. We follow the progress of our players from a much younger age these days, so we often get the impression that they’re older than they are, and consequently write them off too soon. Senderos is only 24, believe it or not, well short of the peak of his career, and more pertinently only a year older than Nani or Ryan Babel, two players still regarded as prospects for the future. Why then is Senderos seen to be finished already?

He is only one example. I’ve already mentioned Walcott as a player written off by many when he was still only 18, simply because he wasn’t justifying Sven’s decision to take him to the World Cup. Theo is still only 20. Bendtner and Denilson are 21, Diaby 23. Even Clichy, who is part of the furniture, is only 24. None of these players should be complete at their age, yet somehow we expect them to be.

The latest to come under fire is Carlos Vela, who according to some is not developing as expected and is showing signs of ‘not fitting in’. What would satisfy these people? His start against Liege was his first of the season in any competition (he hasn’t even begun a Carling Cup game because of injuries), his other four appearances coming from the bench, often after an injury break. And he is criticised for not terrorising opposing defences from the first minute?

It seems a tough ask for a 20 year old to make sporadic appearances and sparkle. It seems we only expect that of Vela because we know he has that capacity – he has proved it in the past. So is that why he’s being written off now? It strikes me as odd that the players to find themselves under fire are those who have shown glimpses of outrageous talent, only inconsistently. Surely they are our most exciting players, the ones that can be honed and developed into stars? Why on earth would we want to knock them down?

I worry for others too – Wilshere is now the ‘great English hope’, so what will happen when he has a few dodgy Premiership performances as an 18 year old? It is an inevitability that he will have his struggles, his dips in form – that is how players learn. There were even voices of discontent at Ramsey’s contribution in our defeat at Sunderland last weekend.

I’m not saying young players should be immune to judgement. Most of the excellent blogs (and you’ll see them in my links) take a realistic approach, saying that a player may not be ready, or ‘looked raw’ in a particular match. Those are usually perfectly fair assessments. But some others take a much more extreme view, writing them off in a heartbeat, penning entire articles on how such and such has been a disappointment and should be shipped out.

Our young players get chances long before they would at other clubs. In the long term, that can only be a good thing for their development, and therefore, provided the balance is right, the club will benefit too. The danger is that it exposes them to the sort of vitriol the tabloids and corners of the internet enjoy dishing out.

And that is destructive. There are fans like that in the stands today, groaning whenever a teenager misplaces a pass, rather than encouraging him in the embryonic stages of his career.

We are Arsenal. They are Arsenal. They deserve our support, and our faith. Believe in them, and you never know what they might become.

Less than a month ago, we approached a Premiership game away at Fulham with the goalkeeping position in disarray. Almunia had been struck down for over a week with a chest infection, and with Fabianski also out with a long term injury, young Mannone had been thrown into a Champions League game in Liege. One shaky performance later, coupled with an impressive display from fourth choice Szczesny in the Carling Cup, and many were calling for the unpronounceable Pole to get the nod. Mannone was fighting just to be third choice.

Four weeks later, and he remains the number one custodian despite Almunia’s return to fitness. It was a strange sight to see the Spaniard on the bench against Alkmaar – the one man we considered to have no realistic competition for his place was suddenly out of favour.

It is easy to draw comparisons with the way Almunia himself ousted Lehmann a couple of seasons ago, but the reality is much different – Jens had made a couple of horrendous mistakes, Almunia had been waiting in the wings for a number of seasons, and at thirty was in the prime of his career. Mannone, on the other hand, is a complete rookie, not even exposed to Carling Cup games, Fabianski being the cup keeper of last season. To promote someone of his experience may have been forced by the absence of the first two picks, but to keep him after their return is a massive risk.

The trouble Mannone has is that at his age, mistakes are inevitable, and sooner or later one will cost us a game. So far, his errors have come in games we’ve won regardless, and his best display, that fateful game at Craven Cottage, single handedly earned us three points. That the Alkmaar draw in midweek was his first taste of anything other than a win indicates that he hasn’t yet done enough wrong to warrant removal from the team. But twenty one year old goalkeepers are a liability at times, no matter how talented they may turn out to be – experience is crucial in a position where a single mistake is usually punished.

So, even if Wenger persists with the Italian, it is highly likely that sooner rather than later, he will be given good reason to reinstate Almunia as number one. I have to say I’m not entirely convinced by that approach – it won’t do Mannone’s confidence any good to be axed after costing us a game, but then on the flip side it could be even more of a kick in the teeth to be benched without just cause. When all in said and done, I’d be stunned if Almunia wasn’t back in the side sometime in November.

However, if his exile continues, we can expect the media to amplify the story, with inevitable reports of ‘bust-ups’ between him and Wenger. When that day arrives, I’ll have to crack a smile, as there is little less likely than two such calm characters at each other’s throat.

The one person I have real sympathy for in Fabianski. Certain of his position as number two after a series of promising cup displays (so much so that the first line of his player description on the official site still reads ‘Lukasz is now the established No 2 keeper behind Manuel Almunia’), this is exactly the situation he would have been waiting for. But unfortunately, his knee injury came at exactly the wrong time, and he missed the perfect opportunity to establish himself in the side. Now, instead of competing for the gloves, he finds himself looking over his shoulder at the other emerging talents at the club, and wondering how far down the pecking order he has dropped in his absence.

There is an argument that if Almunia is truly out of favour, Fabianski may get the nod when his returns to fitness in the next few weeks, but I think this would throw even more confusion on the situation. Competition for places is a great thing, but there needs to be some consistency at the back for a defensive unit to operate successfully. It seems to be a straight fight between Almunia and Mannone at present.

I expect Almunia to win out eventually, but as and when he does, his mental state could have a massive impact on our season. If his confidence is destroyed, so may be our chances of winning trophies. However, if he returns as hungry as when keeping Jens out of the side, then this might turn out to be a masterstroke of management.

Much of our season depends on it. Let’s hope the gamble pays off.