The Beautiful Groan

I couldn’t really let today go by without mentioning Jose Mourinho’s dramatic departure from Stamford Bridge, and what it might mean to the club and the Premiership moving forward.

There is a certain sense of irony that at the beginning of the season, the press were having a field day claiming that Arsene Wenger would leave Arsenal, and his assembled team would break down, leaving the club in oblivion. Of course it was all absolutely ridiculous, but that won’t stop them using the same sensationalist tactics down the road in West London.

There is no doubting that Mourinho leaving will shake Chelsea to the core, and will unsettle a number of players. However, I don’t think for one moment there will be the mass walkout that some papers are already predicting, with Lampard, Drogba and Carvalho all being tipped to swiftly follow the manager out. Much like when Wenger leaves, there will be some changes as a new manager puts his stamp on the club, and over the first year a couple of players may decide to draw their Chelsea careers to a close and move on. And they will be replaced.

Of course, that scenario isn’t interesting enough for the media, who just want to print ‘Crisis!’ and ‘Turmoil!’ whenever they can.

But that isn’t to say that this is not bad news for Chelsea. It is. Mourinho may have been one of the most dislikable managers ever to walk these shores, but as a tactician and man manager he was up there with the very best. Some may say that he bought the title, but as many Real Madrid managers will testify, collecting players and then moulding them into a cohesive team is an extremely difficult job. Every player at the club now believes he is a superstar, and superstars don’t often like change.

Mourinho made Chelsea incredibly difficult to beat, and he infused a siege mentality in the team which led to so many fightbacks - they just didn’t know how to lose. Witness the comeback against us at the Emirates at the end of the last season - a goal and a man down in the second half, they battered us.

Many are already writing his apparent successor, Avram Grant, off. Clearly the media don’t learn that just because they know little about a man, doesn’t mean they have no talent. Our own manager was proof of that, and Grant comes with a decent reputation from his time in Israel especially.

But this is a wholly different animal. He is friends with Abramovich, so he is likely to bend to his wishes more often that Jose did. Shevchenko can expect more playing time. But at the same time, there may be some resentment around the club, and the fans are ready to lash out if things don’t go to plan. For me, the job is now a poisoned chalice - it is a practically impossible task to achieve the same level of results as Mourinho while appeasing Abramovich with attractive football. The players have to learn a whole new style - can they do it? Do they even want to?

The timing is also extremely odd. With a crunch game at Old Trafford on Sunday, they will go one of two ways. Either they will act unsettled and get rolled over, or Mourinho’s siege mentality will live on and they’ll shock United. I suspect the latter, especially after their awful performance on Tuesday - they have a point to prove.

It has been a bright 24 hours for Arsenal. It has been a disheartening 24 hours to be a Chelsea fan. This season gets more interesting by the day.

It couldn’t last. Amongst all the delight around Arsenal’s stunning start to the season, there have been more rumblings going on in the background.

And so, as revealed earlier by ANR and investigated by Gunnerblog, it became apparent that Alisher Usmanov and his Red and White holdings company had purchased enough shares to take them to around 21% ownership of Arsenal Football Club. Now only Danny Fiszman owns a greater slice.

That news is concerning in itself, given the shady background of the company and the apparent single-minded ambition of David Dein. Working in Arsenal’s best interests becomes a lot more difficult to believe when the timing of such actions brings such a swift end to euphoria. At best, it’s a dent in what has been a glorious week. At worst, it is deliberate destabilisation.

But even more concerning was the price of the purchase, placed anywhere between 8.5k and 10k a share, way above the trading price. Usmanov really wanted those shares.

So the question is, why? No doubt we will shortly be fed the same rhetoric about the company raising their stake, but not preparing for a hostile takeover, so should we believe it? Absolutely not.

Purchasing shares from a business perspective is one thing. Usmanov may have believed that the share price would rise, and he could make a quick buck. But he is purchasing the shares for a price well over the odds. Either he thinks the shares are about to boom, in which case he would struggle to find a seller, or he has entirely different plans.

And I think it’s fairly clear that it is the latter. With his stake in the club rising, eyes will now turn to Stan Kroenke, who has decisions to make. He purchased his shares for around 7k each, so with Usmanov paying such inflated prices, the American could walk away tomorrow with a healthy profit in his back pocket. The question is - what does he want?

Suddenly the option of getting Kroenke on side with the board is a wise one, which makes Peter Hill-Wood’s dismissive remarks about him a few months back seems a touch premature. Were he to sell to Red and White, they would become the major shareholder and a very serious threat.

I find myself hoping that Stan Kroenke can work with the board to find a way to reject this new attack. Two months ago, I couldn’t imagine myself saying that.

This one is going to run and run. And it’s going to get ugly.

After a couple of days of searching and scouring for reputable reports of transfer costs, double and triple checking in places, I bring you the total price of every Premiership starting XI from the weekend.

And there are a few surprises in there. Enjoy.

20. Reading - 5.678m:

(Hahnemann - free, Murty - 700k, Ingimarsson - 175k, Duberry - 800k, Shorey - 25k, Fae - 2.5m, Harper - 400k, Gunnarsson - nominal, Hunt - free, Lita - 1m, Doyle - 78k)

Showing just how good a job Steve Coppell is doing, his entire XI over the weekend cost one third of Darren Bent. Admittedly, they got hammered.

19. Derby - 7.975m:

(Bywater - 225k, Griffin - free, Malcolm - free, Davis - 3m, Camara - free, Todd - 750k, Fagan - 1m, Oakley - free, Mears - 1m, Pearson - 1m, Howard - 1m)

Like Reading, Derby’s team cost peanuts, unlike Reading, they’re going to finish so far bottom that the team in 19th will wonder what that tiny dot in the distance is.

18. Blackburn - 17.9m:

(Friedel - free, Emerton - 2.2m, Samba - free, Nelsen - free, Warnock - 1.5m, Bentley - 4m, Savage - 3m, Dunn - 2.2m, Pedersen - 2.5m, Santa Cruz - free, McCarthy - 2.5m)

While Blackburn are certainly not many people’s cup of tea, there is no doubting that on a financial level, they are doing superbly. How anyone can get hold of McCarthy and Santa Cruz, neither beyond their peak, for a total of 2.5m is beyond me.

17. Birmingham - 19.25m:

(Maik Taylor - free, Kelly - 750k, Jaidi - 2m, Ridgewell - 2m, Parnaby - free, Kapo - 3m, Muamba - 4m, Djourou - loan, Larsson - 1m, Forssell - 3m, Jerome - 3.5m.)

You look at this side and it looks worse that Reading, despite costing four times as much.

16. Bolton - 19.85m:

(Jaaskelainen - 100k, Hunt - free, Meite - 4m, Cid - 1m, Samuel - free, Speed - 750k, Nolan - free, Alonso - loan, McCann - 1m, Diouf - 5m, Anelka - 8m.)

With most of the money spent on three signings, you have to say that any success Bolton have this season is well earned. Of course, they’ve looked atrocious so far, and might finish lower than this 16th suggests.

15. Wigan - 22.05m:

(Kirkland - 2.5m, Melchiot - free, Granqvist - 750k, Bramble - free, Kilbane - 2m, Landzaat - 2.5m, Brown - 1m, Scharner - 2.5m, Koumas - 5.3m, Sibierski - free, Heskey - 5.5m)

While many think Wigan spend nothing, they’ve actually splashed out a reasonable amount on their side, without actually getting a lot of quality to show for it. Koumas and Heskey costing nearly 11m between them? You can get Reading, twice over, for that.

14. Portsmouth - 24.45m:

(James - 1.2m, Johnson - 3m, Pamarot - 2.5m (part of 7.5m deal with Davis/Mendes), Distin - free, Hreidarsson - free, Lauren - 500k, Muntari - 7m, Davis - 2.5m (part of 7.5m deal with Pamarot/Mendes), Taylor - 750k, Utaka - 7m, Kanu - free.)

The wheeler-dealer that is Harry Redknapp is something of an expert at not spending a lot on players. They will finish a lot higher than 14th, although they’ll have to play a lot better than they did on Sunday.

13. Fulham - 26.775m:

(Niemi - 2m, Bocanegra - free, Konchesky - 3.25m, Stefanovic - 1m, Baird - 3.025m, Smertin - free, Davies - 3m, Davis - 4m, Dempsey - 1.5m, Bouazza - 3m, Kamara - 6m)

Another side who, unnoticed, have actually spent a reasonable amount on their team, but how many in that list look overpriced? I’d say around half.

12. Sunderland - 27.09m:

(Gordon - 9m, Nosworthy - free, McShane - 2.5m, Higginbotham - 2.5m, Collins - 140k, Leadbitter - free, Yorke - 200k, Etuhu - 1.5m, Wallace - 250k, Chopra - 5m, Jones - 6m)

If Sunderland come 12th they’ll be delighted, but they’ve spent the money that suggests that they now should. The forward line is surely massively overpriced, but the record signing of Gordon may be what keeps them up.

11. West Ham - 29.225m:

(Green - 2m, Neill - 1.5m, Ferdinand - free, Upson - 6m, McCartney - 1.1m (valuing Clarke at 500k), Bowyer - free, Noble - free, Mullins - 625k, Etherington - 3.5m, Ashton - 7m, Bellamy - 7.5m)

Dean Ashton + Craig Bellamy + Matthew Upson - 20.5m? And you wonder why Arsene Wenger doesn’t buy many British players. Add to this total the phenomenal wages West Ham offer, and the fact that Parker (7m), Faubert (6.1m) and Ljungberg (3m) are missing, and West Ham can be a 40m team.

10. Middlesbrough - 30.25m:

(Schwarzer - 1.5m, Young - 2.5m, Woodgate - 7m, Wheater - free, Taylor - free, Boateng - 5m, Rochemback - 4.5m, Arca - 1.75m, Downing - free, Mido - 6m, Aliadiere - 2m)

Into the top ten now, and we break the 30m mark thanks to some serious Boro spending. Before McClaren was hired as England manager, people were touting his achievements, but he spent a fortune at Boro (including the now departed Viduka and Yakubu) without getting anywhere. Is it any wonder England look rubbish? Here, the combined fee of 8m for a lazy Mido, and a brittle and not very good Aliadiere doesn’t look like good business.

9. Newcastle - 30.75m:

(Harper - free, Taylor - free, Rozehnal - 2.9m, Cacapa - free, N’Zogbia - 250k, Smith - 6m, Geremi - free, Butt - 2m, Milner - 3.6m, Owen - 16m, Viduka - free)

Staying up north, Newcastle spend 30m despite having five free transfers in their side. In fact, on some days, where they field 6m Joey Barton, and 6.5m Jose Enrique, they’ll pass the 40m mark.

8. Man City - 34.4m:

(Schmeichel - free, Corluka - 8m, Richards - free, Dunne - 3m, Garrido - 1.5m, Ireland - free, Johnson - free, Hamann - 400k, Petrov - 4.7m, Elano - 8m, Bianchi - 8.8m)

Four players through the academy and City still come out at nearly 35m. With Bojinov injured and costing nearly 6m, they are another club who could easily hit the 40m this season, especially once the chequebook returns in January.

7. Arsenal - 35.72m:

(Almunia - 1.5m, Toure - 150k, Senderos - 2.5m, Gilberto - 4.5m, Clichy - nominal, Rosicky - 6.8m, Fabregas - free, Flamini - 270k (comp), Hleb - 10m, Van Persie - 3m, Adebayor - 7m)

Who needs money when you can assemble this team for less than the profit made on the Anelka, Petit and Overmars transfers? Hleb comes in as the most expensive (throughout the squad) at 10m, while picking up Toure, Clichy and Cesc, arguably the three top performers at the moment, for a week of Michael Ballack’s wages, has got to be some of the best business ever performed.

6. Aston Villa - 37.5m:

(Carson - loan, Mellberg - 5m, Knight - 3.5m, Laursen - 3m, Bouma - 3.5m, Agbonlahor - free, Reo-Coker - 8.5m, Barry - free, Young - 9m, Moore - free, Carew - 5m (estimate, swap with Baros))

Coming in above Arsenal are Villa, who after the weekend most of the Premiership has a liking for. There are three frees and a loan deal in there, but the signings of their English players especially has risen the price of their side. For a club with a reputation for not spending, they do like to splash the cash around a bit.

5. Everton - 47.8m:

(Howard - 3m, Jagielka - 4m, Yobo - 5m, Lescott - 4m, Baines - 5m, Arteta - 2m, Neville - 3m, Carsley - 1.95m, Pienaar - loan, Yakubu - 11.25m, Johnson - 8.6m)

As we move into the top five, we take a massive jump of 10m up to Everton, whose first XI over the weekend cost nearly 50m. Everyone knows about the money spent on the forwards, but they’ve spent a serious amount on the backline too. No doubt if the Toffees so well this season, they will be praised for their successes, but with this sort of chequebook activity, they should be up there.

4. Spurs - 53.6m:

(Robinson - 2m, Chimbonda - 4.5m, Rocha - 3.3m, Kaboul - 7m, Bale - 5m, Malbranque - 2m, Huddlestone - 2.5m, Jenas - 8m, Lee - 1.4m, Keane - 7m, Berbatov - 10.9m)

Another leap is made to Spurs, who spent well over 50m on a side that have looked poor all season. Their backline is shocking, yet somehow it cost them over 20m, while Jenas at 8m is ridiculously priced. And this is the price of the side WITHOUT Darren Bent in it, the 16.5m striker not making the team. No wonder Daniel Levy’s pissed off. They’ve spent like a top four club, but they aren’t going to be one.

3. Liverpool - 86.5m:

(Reina - 6m, Finnan - 3.5m, Hyypia - 3m, Agger - 5.8m, Arbeloa - 2.5m, Pennant - 6.7m, Mascherano - 1.5m, Alonso - 10.5m, Babel - 11.5m, Torres - 26.5m, Kuyt - 9m)

Now we’re playing with serious money. A massive leap of over 30m between fourth and third means that Liverpool are closing in on fielding a side costing 100m. You could argue that a couple in there are overpriced, but in reality Liverpool have simply bought a side over the last two to three years. Not many sides can afford this, but results will now be expected.

2. Man Utd - 91.5m:

(Van der Sar - 2m, Brown - free, Ferdinand - 30m, Vidic - 7m, Evra - 5.5m, Eagles - free, Hargreaves - 17m, Scholes - free, Nani - 14m, Anderson - 16m, Tevez - loan)

No surprise to see United up here, even though they had three academy products in their side, and with Tevez arriving on loan, he doesn’t count as anything either. Not only that, but replace Eagles with Ronaldo, and Tevez with Rooney, and you’ve got a side costing more like 135m. Some say they don’t financially compete with Chelsea, but they do with their first team. They just lack the depth of the Russians. Not everyone has a multi-billionaire, most have to earn their cash.

1. Chelsea - 145m:

(Cech - 7m, Belletti - 3.5m, Terry - free, Alex - free, Ashley Cole - 16m (estimated Gallas’ worth at 11m, based on Chelsea’s original offer of 16m), Wright-Phillips - 21m, Makelele - 16m, Essien - 28m, Malouda - 13.5m, Mikel - 16m (12m to Man Utd, 4m to Lyn Oslo), Drogba - 24m)

But of course, Chelsea will always come out on top of this list. Terry and Alex cost nothing, but they still manage to have a side costing nearly 150m. This, of course, tells only half the story - with the likes of Carvalho and Shevchenko not even making the team, plus all the money they’ve lost in transfers (Geremi cost them 10m, then they let him go on a free), they are living in a completely different financial world to everyone else.

But look at some of those prices. How many of those players could be replaced with someone else of the same ability, costing far less? The only bargain in there is Cech, and even he cost 7m. Financially doped indeed.

——-

So there we have it. Liverpool, Chelsea and United put out sides costing between 80 and 150m, and ours cost 35m, less than Villa’s. And the only way you can make that more expensive is to put Sagna in, so you hit 40m.

But even then, the side is far cheaper than Spurs’ or Everton’s, and when Newcastle, West Ham and Man City empty their physio room, theirs will be even higher, pushing us back to around 9th in the price list.

It has been said many times that Wenger has money to spend. Some have calulated it, based upon his past budget and the transfer profit he has made this summer. It usually comes out around the 30-35m mark.

So that is to say, over the course of a few years, with that money, he could assemble this Arsenal team all over again. That does not take into account the fact that we are profitable from the ground now. It does not take into account that Wenger has an uncanny ability to sell his players for more than he paid for them, even when he has had their best use.

In short, under Wenger we have absolutely no financial problem. With his ability to forge a squad, he will never need to ask the board for cash they cannot supply. There is plenty there for a considerable number of his type of signings. And with him poised to sign a new contract, that is the way it will stay.

So, put simply, Alisher Usmanov, we neither need nor want your money. You made an orange man very rich for his own personal gain, but for the football club, you are not required. Now kindly piss off.

Before I start, I should point out that I am in no doubt that there will be a takeover attempt, with the intent of putting Arsenal into foreign ownership, and with David Dein achieving his aim of becoming chairman. But will it happen?

Simply put, there are a few assumptions being made. For a takeover to succeed, Red and White Holdings still need to purchase a considerable number of shares. To do this, they need to buy shares from at least two significant sources. One is widely assumed to be Stan Kroenke, if he realises his own takeover plans are fading, while the other could be any other major shareholder.

But will that happen? Most newspaper reports focus on the fact that if Kroenke sells his shares, Usmanov and co will own close to the 30% mark that could start takeover proceedings. To me, that’s a leap. American businessmen and Russian oligarchs don’t exactly have a healthy history, do they?

As for the rest of the shareholders, many are tied up within the board. After being so opposed to Kroenke, is there any chance that they will sell to such a shady individual as Usmanov, with Dein in tow, who they booted out just a few months ago? I’d say that’s far from certain, no matter what sums are on the table.

Unless I’m very much mistaken about how the takeover process would take place, I see it as far from a formality. And that gives me hope. Hope that Dein has shot himself in the foot by backing a man with the reputation and baggage of Alisher Usmanov.

Now that we’ve actually had some football, we should start being able to tell who might actually be decent this season, and who else is likely to wave to Spurs as they head towards the bottom of the league. So what have we discovered so far?

Arsenal have not lost the habit of conceding first at home and then spending the whole of the game playing catch up.

Happily, we have discovered the ability to finally turn the possession into goals.

Hleb was being honest - he really is going to shoot more this season. A bit like Fabregas at the end of last season, when he says he’ll step up and score more, he means it.

Sagna is good. Potentially very good.

Spurs are bad. Potentially very bad.

Chelsea look like playing a more attractive brand of football this season.

Glen Johnson isn’t very good.

Jeremie Aliadiere can still miss the simplest of chances (I know he was offside, but the miss was a classic)

Liverpool are still utterly reliant on Steven Gerrard.

Benitez still has no idea what his first choice team is.

Steve Coppell is a very canny manager.

Spurs are not going to be close to the top four.

Mikel Arteta has finally got people noticing how good he is.

Wayne Rooney has feet like Aliadiere’s legs. Brittle.

Man City are going to have a good season.

Bolton aren’t.

Freddie Ljungberg really can’t run anymore.

Newcastle can keep dreaming about the Martins/Owen partnership - Michael will pull his hamstring/thigh/groin again in a couple of weeks.

Did I mention that Spurs weren’t very good?

—

Now is probably a good time to mention the bets I put on before the season started, based upon the predictions I made:

Man City to win the Premiership handicap (+40 points). Basically, whoever wins the handicap is the team that outperforms their expectations, i.e. last year it was Reading. Man City were predicted to come 12th. At 8-1, I think they’re a great bet.

Bolton to go down at 6-1.

Van Persie to be top scorer at 12-1 (not sure this’ll happen, but the odds were quite generous)

Removing Man Utd and Chelsea from the league, Arsenal will win it (15/8). This bet basically asks who’ll come higher, Arsenal or Liverpool, and at 15/8, I had to take those odds.

So, have you had a punt?

5. Man City (Last season – 14^th)

In: Geovanni, Bianchi, Fernandes, Petrov, Garrido, Corluka, Elano, Bojinov

Out: Distin, Sinclair, Jordan, Trabelsi, Barton, Weaver

Every season there’s a team that comes flying out of the gates, and end up finishing a lot higher than people thought they would at the start of the season. This year, I believe it will be City, but that they will actually maintain it and come closest of all to breaking into the top four.

The much-maligned Eriksson actually had a tremendous record for England, coming off the back of repeated success at club level. He also knows his European football, and I’d bet that at least two of Bianchi, Petrov, Elano and Bojinov turn out to be tremendous signings.

A lot will depend on how he can knit all these signings into a successful team, but you have to remember that City had an excellent defence last season, which is the perfect platform to build from. Had they been able to score freely, they would’ve been top six material. Now, I have no doubt they’ll finish far higher than they have in years.

Also, expect a few surprise victories over the top four – Eriksson often got England playing at their best in the top matches, and I expect more of the same from him here. While I think top four is beyond them (I imagine there’ll be around a ten point gap between fourth and fifth), they can certainly be the best of the rest.

4. Liverpool (Last season – 3^rd)

In: Torres, Leiva, San Jose, Mihaylov, Nemeth, Simon, Voronin, Pacheco, Kacansiklic, Purie, Stevens, Benayoun, Babel

Out: Cisse, Bellamy, Garcia, Sinama Pongolle, Fowler, Dudek, Zenden, Gonzalez

Ah, here we are again with perennial predictions. Pre-season efforts are some kind of déjà vu time warp, with Liverpool persistently tipped as champions. But they haven’t even been challenging at the end for nearly two decades, and I expect nothing different this time around.

Much of the hype has surrounded their new signings. Babel, for instance, appeared to be on his way to Arsenal for around 6m, but reports from the Under 21 European Championships weren’t great. In fairness, Wenger was probably never interested and it was purely paper talk, but imagine my surprise when Liverpool then paid a whopping 11.5m for him, an extraordinary figure for a player who, while looking decent, does not look like a world beater. If you are to spend that much money on a player, he’d better be superb.

That said, one of Liverpool’s constant flaws in their lack of width in midfield. Babel can at least supply them with that. The other big name to arrive is, of course, Fernando Torres. While undoubtedly a good signing (although surely not 25m+ value), he is not a true goalscorer. That is not to say he will not score goals, because he will, but when you take penalties away, he scores around 12-14 a season. That isn’t going to win them the league.

However, I do think Liverpool will be a serious threat in the Champions League once more. Benitez is a master technician when it comes to the European game, as well as the fact that it is then that he finally seems to realise what his best eleven is. But given that Torres will surely play every European game, his rotation policy will mean that the Spaniard will not play as much Premiership football as you’d expect. Do not put him in your fantasy football team, folks.

The rest of their signings include Benayoun, who I doubt will figure much, and a whole host of unknowns for the future. The departing Sinama Pongolle can verify that being a hyped youngster at Liverpool far from guarantees success. Overall, I think Liverpool will once again be a great threat in one-off games – I can see them succeeding in Europe, going on domestic cup runs and beating others in the big four, but their consistency and Benitez’s rotation policy will let them down in the Premiership.

3. Arsenal (Last season – 4^th)

In: Sagna, Fabianski, da Silva, Nordtveit

Out: Aliadiere, Muamba, Poom, Lupoli, Henry, Ljungberg, Reyes

So, according to many pundits, this is the season that Arsenal will finally fall out of the top four. Their reasons are a) Henry has left, which they believe to be a handicap on last season where he hardly played, something he had in common with the excellent Van Persie, and b) the team is unsettled. To be honest, I have not seen Arsenal looking so united pre-season in a long time.

Let’s get one thing straight – there is no-one in the Arsenal setup who is a replacement for Henry. No-one will score 25 goals this season. Having said that, an injury-free Van Persie will score a bucketload, and there will be some spectacular ones in there. This will be a huge season for the Dutchman, who will carry the line, and relish his new responsibility.

He will be supported more ably than last season – with the hapless pairing of Baptista and Aliadiere gone, Adebayor will need to step up, with da Silva providing a different kind of edge. He is a selfish striker – his first instinct is to shoot, which is novel to say the least.

There are still issues to resolve. The lack of width in midfield is worrying, although Eboue looks like becoming a genuine right winger with Sagna playing behind him, but Rosicky will have to raise his game (and work on his hamstrings) to perform on the left, especially with Hleb proving pre-season how much more valuable he is in the centre.

There is also the fragility at centre back, where Gallas and Toure are yet to click. New captain Gallas (I’ll discuss that another time) needs to take a huge step forward from last season, but he has the ability. Now is the time to deliver.

Around the rest of the team, their age means that even without signings, the team is stronger for one more year’s experience, a testament to Wenger’s youth policy. I don’t believe it is enough yet to be genuine challengers (although I can see the top four being much closer this time around), but this season should be far better than the last one.

There is one caveat. Over the last two seasons Arsenal have had shocking luck with injuries, to all but one player. Cesc Fabregas is essential to this side, even with the strength of depth available in central midfield. A long term injury to him would scupper even the best laid plans.

But I think third is very achievable, to become challengers after that. I am full of optimism. Are you?

2. Man Utd (Last season – 1^st)

In: Hargreaves, Anderson, Nani, Kuszczak, Tevez

Out: Richardson, Rossi, Smith

The champions may not have signed many players this season, but they’ve spent an absolute fortune on those that they have. Many of them raise questions – how do Carrick and Hargreaves play together? How are Rooney and Tevez compatible?

To be honest, I think those two signings are the only two that will see regular first team football this season, with Nani and Anderson coming on sporadically to show their talent for the future. And make no mistake about it, going forward United are utterly fearsome, with goals possible from absolutely anywhere. If Ronaldo can produce the form of last season they may well end the season as top goalscorers once again.

Their problem lies at the other end, and remains largely unresolved. One thing they had in their favour last season was, until the last month of the season, their defence remained intact. The back unit of Ferdinand and Vidic especially was solid, but the backup to those players in not of Premership winning quality. If they get a couple of injuries across the back they’ll be in trouble.

I’d be very surprised to see United finish the season with no silverware, but I don’t think the trophy they’ll win will be the Premiership. Last season their consistency outstayed Chelsea, but I can’t see them maintaining that with any injuries at the back, and the increasing sense that Van der Sar’s best days are behind him.

1. Chelsea (Last season – 2^nd)

In: Malouda, Ben Haim, Sidwell, Pizarro, Mellis, Philliskirk

Out: Geremi, Ma-Kalambay, Morais

A few things are guaranteed about this season for Chelsea. One, whenever they lose it will not be the fault of their players – it will be the referee somehow, or perhaps their lack of squad strength, which, given their spending, is the weakest argument imaginable. Two, they will be defensively sound, with the return of Cech and the absence of Boulahrouz.

I’m not impressed with their signings – Malouda to me is no better than what they already have, Ben Haim will be only backup, Pizarro has never been more than a decent striker, and Sidwell will be lucky to see any first team action at all.

However, they haven’t lost anyone of note either, so they will go into the new season with a largely settled squad. You could argue that Drogba cannot be as devastating again, especially as he’ll miss a month because of the African Nations, but you could also argue that Shevchenko has to be better.

One thing is for sure, Mourinho knows how to organise a team, and Chelsea will be as mean in defence as ever. I haven’t placed them top because I think they’ll be any better – I don’t think they will. I just don’t think Man Utd will be as consistent, or that anyone else is ready yet.

Much as I would love them to win nothing, I think they’ll claim the title back. However, I still think they’ll miss out on the prize they now crave most of all – the Champions League.

10. Portsmouth (Last season – 9^th)

In: Nugent, Utaka, Distin, Hreidarsson, Muntari, Cranie, Mvuemba, Reynolds

Out: Todorov, Fordyce, Griffin, Mbesuma

After last season’s success, Harry Redknapp has added to the squad wisely, with a mix of experienced players, used to the Premiership, European players with real potential, and David Nugent, who is likely to impress himself upon the Premiership.

Redknapp has a habit of getting the best out of his players, and given that their squad looks relatively strong this season, I can’t imagine they’ll be anywhere near the bottom. Fratton Park still earns them plenty of points, so another top ten finish is perfectly achievable.

I would also be surprised if their spending has finished. Expect another couple of names before the end of August.

9. Aston Villa (Last season – 11^th)

In: Reo-Coker, Harewood, Forrester, Lichaj

Out: Hughes, Samuel, Davis, McCann, Angel, Henderson, Hendrie, Olejnik, Sutton

Martin O’Neill has now had a full summer to tweak his squad, and he normally does that extremely well, picking the players he feels he can work well with. But so far, his signings have been few and far between, so I’d expect at least two more before September comes around.

O’Neill is the right kind of character to make Reo-Coker focus on his football, but the other ex-Hammer, Marlon Harewood, is surely a step too far. There’s only so much distance managerial talent goes before the player actually needs to have some ability of his own.

The squad clearout has certainly happened, with so many fringe players leaving, but they still need a couple of new faces. I expect O’Neill to get the chequebook out again, and Villa to push hard for a European place.

8. Newcastle (Last season – 13^th)

In: Viduka, Barton, Rozehnal, Geremi, Smith, Cacapa, Enrique

Out: Parker, Bramble, Sibierski, Moore, Bernard, O’Brien

One of the perennial questions asked before the start of every season is: will this be the season that Newcastle finally win something? But is never is, and this season will be no different.

Viduka is a good signing, as Owen doesn’t count as anything other than a stretcher tester these days, and Barton will add the spike to the midfield in a way that Sam Allardyce likes. In fact, Newcastle are managing a complete turnaround – after being everyone’s second team when Keegan was making them play stunning football, they will now be turned into a physical team of long ball merchants. Will the Geordie fans accept it? If they’re successful, of course. If not, this may not be Allardyce’s dream job.

I would imagine they would do better than last season, but not well enough to reach Europe. Expect to see a lot of Newcastle’s coaching staff on MOTD, as Allardyce continues his pathetic boycott of the BBC.

7. West Ham (Last season – 15^th)

In: Parker, Faubert, Wright, Bellamy, Ljungberg

Out: Konchesky, Reo-Coker, Mears, Benayoun, Harewood, Sheringham, Newton, Carroll

I should be predicting exactly where West Ham are going to finish in the Championship, but they managed to cheat and lie their way out of trouble and maintain their position in the top flight.

Now shorn of Carlos Tevez, they need goalscorers, but the returning Ashton and Bellamy should provide plenty of those. Faubert is out for six months, and Ljungberg’s signing is only a good one for Arsenal if you’ve seen his slow down over the last couple of years. Parker, meanwhile, will probably do the job that Reo-Coker was supposed to do, but he’ll carry it out well. I’ve always rated him very highly.

I can see West Ham pushing on from how they finished last season, and may even creep into a UEFA Cup place. We may not like the fact that they’re still in the Premiership, but we’ll have to get used to it – they’re here to stay now.

6. Tottenham (Last season – 5^th)

In: Bale, Taarabt, Berchiche, Bent, Kaboul, Rose, Boateng

Out: Hallfredsson, Ziegler, Yeates

Ah, common prediction number two – Spurs will break into the top four. In fact, they’re apparently closing the gap on the top four all the time. Which is why, of course, they finished so much further behind last season. Er….logic?

Let’s get real. Pundits are predicting Spurs to finish above Arsenal because it seems to be the common option. Yet whenever Spurs’ first team faced Arsenal’s kids last season, they were utterly outclassed. That should be the reality check.

Darren Bent is a decent striker, but 16m is utterly ludicrous. And what makes the signing even more bizarre is that he joins their most occupied position, so how exactly will he improve things? Where they need reinforcement is at the back, where they were as leaky as a chocolate teapot. And I can’t see their stability being any better than before.

Spurs fans will be beside themselves with gloating optimism at the start of the season, but towards the end they will once again be silenced. They are nowhere near good enough to challenge the top four yet.

15. Reading (Last season – 8^th)

In: Cisse, Fae

Out: Sidwell, Halford, Ujah, Hayes

Second season syndrome is one that hits a lot of teams – no-one expected Reading to finish eighth last time out and they surely won’t again. They’ve got the most settled squad in the Premiership, with barely any transfer dealings, but with so many sides that finished below them splashing out this summer, that may not be a good thing.

They’ve lost Sidwell, the midfielder destined for obscurity in Chelsea’s reserves, and not really replaced him, but Coppell, my pick for manager of the season last year, has the nous to keep them away from danger. They have learned from one season in the top flight, but others have learnt about them. They should still have enough to survive.

14. Middlesbrough (Last season – 12^th)

In: Tuncay, Aliadiere, Woodgate, Young

Out: Viduka, Parnaby, Xavier, Christie, Graham, Kennedy, Morrison

Losing Viduka was a huge blow to Boro, but Sanli Tuncay comes highly rated, so if they can keep hold of Yakubu they should still have plenty of goals in them. Aliadiere and his legs of glass provide another option when fit, but with him arriving and Woodgate signing on a permanent deal, they may have to hire another couple of physios.

Gareth Southgate now has more experience as a top flight manager, having admitted himself that he was learning as he went, and that should keep them well away from any relegation battle.

13. Sunderland (Last season – Championship, 1^st)

In: Etuhu, Richardson, Halford, Anderson, Chopra, McShane, Gordon

Out: Cunningham, Miller, Elliott

One thing you can guarantee from Sunderland – they’ll work their socks off. Having said that, I’m not sure they’ve got the players to push them impressively high up the table. They should have, after spending nearly 25m this summer, but you can’t help but feel they’ve been ripped off since their promotion. Craig Gordon is a decent prospect but not 9m worth, and as for spending 5m on Michael Chopra, well, let’s just say I don’t expect him to be troubling the golden boot regulars.

One thing they will have is team spirit and a never say die attitude, that they’ll get from their manager. He’s put pressure on himself by saying they’re aiming for Europe, but I think a secure finish away from the relegation battle is more realistic. I see comfort, but nothing more.

12. Everton (Last season – 6^th)

In: Baines, Jutkiewicz, Jagielka, Pienaar

Out: Wright, Pistone, Naysmith, Beattie, Phelan

The bulk of Everton’s first eleven remains from last season, with a few players signed to challenge, and a few fringe players let go. On the face of it, this should mean that they’d have a strong year, as there’s a lot to be said for a settled squad.

But I don’t think they will. The money being flung around this summer means that there are a bunch of teams likely to improve dramatically this season, provided the new signings settle. And I can see a side like Everton being victims of that, and falling behind the pack. I’ll predict them to sit in mid-table all season long, never troubling the European places or relegation.

I also predict that they’ll beat Liverpool at home, as they seem to be making a happy habit of that.

11. Blackburn (Last season – 10^th)

In: Nielsen, Rigters, Santa Cruz

Out: Todd, Gray

Last season’s bunch of ‘strong tacklers’ remains largely unaltered, so we can expect more physical football of the least subtle nature from Mark Hughes’ men. Expect them to win matches with a soft referee, and pick up a few red cards in the rest, leaving Hughes to rant and rave about the official, the lack of penalties, the opposition, and the inexplicable success of the Spice Girls.

Against Arsenal, for example, they will attempt to kick every threat on the park before running past eleven crocked players, only for Bentley to dive in the box and win a match clinching penalty. Which of course, if you listen to Hughes, they never get.

In all seriousness, Roque Santa Cruz will probably form a decent partnership with McCarthy, which should see them score enough to reach mid-table, but their team simply isn’t good enough to get into Europe. Thankfully.

Right, it’s time to kick off the Premiership preview, with a look, from the bottom up, at the Premiership for the coming season. The ins and outs are according to the BBC and not including loans, so they may be a) slightly inaccurate (don’t blame me!) or out of date (if you read this tomorrow).

So, without further ado, let’s get on with it. As ever, feel free to add your opinions/criticisms/thoughts.

20. Derby (Last season – Championship, playoffs)

In: Earnshaw, Mears, Davis, Todd, Hinchcliffe, Griffin, Price

Out: Johnson, Bisgaard, Grant, Smith, Peschisolido, Boertien, Camp, Cann

Does anyone give Derby a chance? Very few teams that come up through the play-offs are ever predicted to achieve more than a swift return to the Championship, and while some prove the pundits wrong, I can’t see Derby joining that group.

None of their signings inspire any confidence, being either Premiership rejects or players past their best. That they spent nearly 8m on them suggests that there was money there, but it may not have been spent wisely. Perhaps none better wanted to join.

They won’t be as bad as Sunderland have sometimes been, but I expect their relegation to be confirmed before the end of April.

19. Wigan (Last season  - 17^th)

In: Sibierski, Bramble, Melchiot, Granqvist, Nash, Koumas, Brown

Out: Baines, McCulloch, Jackson, De Zeeuw, Unsworth, Johansson

Wigan defied the odds last season with a remarkable last day survival push, condemning Sheff Utd to the Championship, but this, their third season in the Premiership, and first under new manager Chris Hutchings, could be the one that sees them fall through the trapdoor.

A club well known to not have the biggest transfer budget around surely could’ve found a better player for 5.3m that Jason Koumas, while Sibierski hasn’t impressed for a couple of years, Brown will miss plenty of games through suspension, and Melchiot’s best days are also behind him.

But while some predict survival, for me one signing above all has guaranteed their fate. They have in the past gained points through outstanding defending, but with the acquisition of Titus Bramble, they are all but doomed.

18. Bolton (Last season – 7^th)

In: McCann, Samuel, Harsanyi, Dzemaili, Cid, Guthrie, Helguson, Alonso, Wilhelmsson

Out: Ben Haim, Tal, Howarth, Pederson, Fortune, Thompson, Martin

Every season there is a team who, from nowhere, find themselves in a relegation battle. And it often happens when a team, previously punching above their weight, lose their manager. It was the reason I predicted Charlton would go down last season, and it is the reason why I believe Bolton may be in serious trouble.

Sammy Lee may win the club more friends than Sam Allardyce, but that’s a bit like saying Halle Berry looks a bit good next to a baboon’s backside. He inherits much of the squad that he predecessor made successful, but he will probably try to make them play football, which will confuse about half of them.

If they begin to struggle, expect Anelka to sulk, his goals to dry up, and a poor run of form see them fall into danger, even after a good start. Is that wishful thinking?

17. Birmingham (Last season – Championship, 2^nd)

In: Kapo, O’Conner, Muamba, Parnaby, de Ridder, Kingston, Schmitz, Queudrue

Out: N’Gotty, Gray, Clemence, Campbell

Birmingham achieved promotion based at least in part on the success of loan players, which is in itself a dangerous game. It is difficult enough to strengthen for the Premiership without also having to replace those that aren’t actually yours.

That said, their signings seem decent – there’s Premiership and European top league experience in there, and they’ve gone for reliable and sturdy rather than purchase a couple of stars. It worked for Reading, and while I don’t think they’ll be anything like as successful, I think with Steve Bruce’s top flight experience, they’ll have just about enough to stay in the top flight for another season.

16. Fulham (Last season – 16^th)

In: Kamara, Hughes, Davis, Baird, Healy, Konchesky, Cook

Out: Jensen, Pembridge, Radzinski, Crossley, Brown, Queudrue

Ah, Northern Ireland play in the Premiership these days, do they? One thing you can say for Lawrie Sanchez’s signings – he knows them and they know each other.

One question that is always asked of teams around the bottom of the league is where the goals come from. But with Fulham, I imagine Kamara and Healy, while not likely to threaten top defences, will score enough to keep them up.

Fulham have spent heavily for a lower tier Premiership side, with their signings costing a total of nearly 15m, and I think this extra outlay, and the organisation that Sanchez brings, will be enough. They may become the dullest side in the Premiership, and new exponents of the long ball game, but it may be effective. If you like anti-football, take a trip to Craven Cottage this season.

Positions 15-11 to come tomorrow.

There’s been a mixed reaction to the signing of Eduardo da Silva.

Some say he’s the perfect fit for the side, a natural goalscorer who lives and breathes goals, spectacular and untidy - I hesitate to say ‘fox in the box’, but that sort of player: the end product guy.

Bets are already being taken on a number of things - how high up the goalscoring charts he will be next season, whether he’ll score more than Torres and Bent, etc.

Some say he is unproven, having come from a weak league, and that his signing shows a lack of ambition from Wenger.

To the former, I’d say hang on - many players struggle in the first season, even Henry couldn’t hit a barn door until Christmas of his first season, when he suddenly came alive, and anyway he isn’t Henry’s direct replacement, just perhaps the spearhead to a new attacking lineup.

To the latter, I’d say give the boy a chance. You can only score against who you play, and in that he has done spectacularly well for club and country.

How successful he is may depend on how much he plays, whether he, Adebayor, and RVP are used as a three-pronged attack, or rotated. But I’d take the bet on him scoring more than Bent any day.

But one thing should be made clear - he is almost definitely the only striker we will sign this summer. Some believe that we still need a further one, but I disagree. We’ve lost a first team striker in Henry, and gained one in da Silva. We’ve lost a reserve striker in Aliadiere, and gained one in Bendtner.

With Adebayor, RVP, da Silva, and Bendtner vying for first team places, I can see Wenger feeling that bringing in another name would only stunt their growth. Be aware that da Silva, at 24, is the eldest of that set. Walcott can fill in as the fifth striker when required.

Wenger does not go out and spend lavish sums on established players, he creates them. And this is how he can sign players for still not inconsiderable sums (10m for Henry), get eight of the very best years of his career out of him, and still sell him for a profit at the end. He’s done the same in the past, he will do so again. You don’t need his economics degree to see the sense in that.

And right now, signing the big name striker so many seem to demand would throw the balance out - the promise held by five strikers already at the club would be held back, and with it their clear and apparent hunger.

Think about it - many of us feel that Van Persie has a big season ahead of him. He relishes responsibility, he stepped up at the World Cup and will do so for us. Let him be the main main. Adebayor has grown in stature and confidence, why dent that by signing someone ahead of him? The list goes on.

The fact is we have five young, hungry, talented strikers. Every interview you see with them you can see their desire to succeed and force themselves in to the side, to perform for Arsenal.

Now try to convince me that we should sign a big name to push them all backwards.