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Transfer business is being spun to suit preconceived ideas

Analysis, Arsenal News, Transfers 31 Responses »

Sep 012011

Yesterday was something of a rarity – a transfer deadline day with not only action, but action of the spectacular kind. Of course it was required, but few of us actually believed that significant numbers would come through the door. I said earlier in the week that we needed three players, at a minimum – a centre back, a creative central midfielder and a striker. I also said that we needed a left back, but the chances of signing three players were slim, let alone four, so it would not be a surprise to see someone ‘versatile’ come in.

As it happens, we signed the centre half, the midfielder and the striker, and got two bonus signings as well. I call them bonus signings because of their situations – Santos, our new Brazilian left back, only became available because Fenerbahce are embroiled in a match-fixing scandal which has already seen them removed from the Champions League and may yet see them follow the Juventus route down to the second tier of their national league. Meanwhile, Benayoun is on loan, adding experience and a work ethic that will hopefully rub off on a few.

The other three were the key moves. From front to back, Chu Young Park is the South Korean captain, and had a decent goalscoring record in a relegated Monaco team last season. He is perhaps the most risky of the three, and has the issue of mandatory national service in two years (which we will pay an additional fee to Monaco for, if he avoids it, in one of the strangest clauses you’ll find), but with Chamakh so woefully out of form and Bendtner leaving on loan, we needed a forward, even as a stop gap. I suspect Walcott will still get his wish to play through the centre on occasion, particularly once Gervinho settles.

In midfield, Mikel Arteta needs no introduction, and comes with vast Premiership experience (in fact, he has played more games than anyone in our squad) – an ideal signing when you consider how light we were in that area. Since Cesc’s departure, Ramsey has been asked to fill the void, and it has appeared to weigh heavily on him – whereas he would previously keep things simple, he appears to believe that new responsibility comes with a requirement for Hollywood passes. Perhaps now he has support, he can go back to doing what he does best. Speaking of Cesc, if you think that losing him was bad for us, you have to feel for Everton a little – how must their fans be feeling today?

But for me, the best signing was at the back, all six foot six of Per Mertesacker, who at 26 has amassed a whopping 75 caps for a German side who aren’t half bad. Previously captain at Werder Bremen (in fact, four out of the five signings have captained club or country in the past), he comes with experience, leadership and size. Judging from Wilshere’s tweets last night, there is a much-needed new excitement around the squad, a welcome fillip after the weekend’s horror show.

Personally, I’m delighted with the business, if a little puzzled why it came so late. Santos is an exception – he only became available because of Fenerbahce’s plight, so he could not have arrived sooner, but what stopped us signing Park, for example? Monaco were relegated in May, he cost next to nothing, and yet we’ve waited until three weeks into the season to sign him. Strange indeed. Still, better late than never.

I actually find the day after the window closes as fascinating as those frantic last few hours, particularly when it comes to how people judge the activity. And the one conclusion I’ve come to is that people are spinning the transfers to whatever suits their own view, with an utter refusal to change their minds. The same moves have been called inspired in some quarters, panic buys in others. Some say they are exactly what we need, some say that they are lacking in quality.

A couple of these struck me today. Firstly, Eurosport ran a transfer deadline day rater, which actually seemed to include the few days leading up to last night. Every club was given a grade, and here are a couple of their examples:

Arsenal: C

The £10m Arteta deal rescued Arsenal, who otherwise underwhelmed in the quality of their purchases.

Underwhelmed? Okay, so apparently the current South Korean captain, the mainstay of the German defence (who, as I recall, hammered England in the World Cup), and the current Brazilian left back are underwhelming quality? I find this sort of comment staggering, and to be honest it smacks of a very typical British arrogance towards any other league in the world. Sure, Park may or may not click, but I’m willing to bet that most of these writers have never seen Santos play, and to dismiss a 26 year old with 75 caps for Germany is daft in the extreme.

But it continues. The BBC ran a report, having spoken to ‘respected’ site Le Grove (oxymoron?) and AST spokesman Tim Payton. Now, I know Tim divides opinion, but I actually have a lot of time for him – in his position he has to take a club-challenging view, otherwise he would be somewhat irrelevant and unable to garner reaction from within the club, so while some of those views rub people up the wrong way, I can entirely understand why he must have them – it isn’t a case of lacking support for the club, quite the contrary, he looks for things the club can improve on and talks about them, which sometimes makes him appear negative. Having said that, the article had him quoted as saying:

“Mertesacker is just a cheap Jagielka.”

Interestingly enough, that quote has since been removed, and replaced with something much more complimentary, so it appears that Tim may have set them straight, or perhaps the quote should have actually been attributed to someone else (it actually sounds like the sort of outlandish comment you’d read on Le Grove). As for the quote itself, do I really need to analyse it? Why not.

Phil Jagielka. 29 years old, 9 caps for an England side who have played approximately twenty central defenders in the last three years.

Per Mertesacker, 26 years old, 75 caps for a Germany side who have reached at least the semi final stage of the last three international tournaments. European experience.

It is entirely possible that Jagielka was originally higher up the list, but maybe that wasn’t a list of preference, but a list of realism – you would have thought it would be easier (and cheaper) to sign a decent player from massively indebted Everton, than Werder Bremen’s vastly experienced club captain and star defender. As it turned out, the German’s price was lower, which tells you everything you need to know about the English premium. Don’t even get me started on the £17m demanded for Gary Cahill, despite the solitary year remaining on his contract. Congratulations Bolton, you have just lost yourselves a fortune.

Going back to that Eurosport grading article from earlier, this will make you laugh.

Tottenham: A

Tottenham’s success in retaining Modric despite a £40m bid from Chelsea and their removal of Crouch, Jenas, Hutton and David Bentley represented a job well done for their astute manager.

I’m sorry, what? Frankly, I don’t see the sense in turning down a huge offer for a player who doesn’t appear to have the stones to do anything but sulk from this point forward – for everyone bemoaning the Cesc debacle this summer, Modric has behaved a hundred times worse. And this is the same site that claimed Arsenal losing Eboue, Denilson et al was an ‘exodus’. Interesting.

My point is this – Arsenal’s transfer business can be spun in a number of ways, and it seems that people are taking the deals, and exploring them in a way which allows them to further their own angle.

As for my opinion? Prior to this week, I think the summer had been handled horribly – sales dragged on too long, pre-season preparation was badly affected, and purchases were delayed to the point that we’ve started the season not so much on the back foot, but slammed against the wall. However, those final few days provided the results we so desperately craved. Better later than never, certainly.

At last, I’m looking forward to the next game. And that alone says a lot.

Man United 8-2 Arsenal – And to think it was four or five we feared

Arsenal News, Matches 10 Responses »

Aug 292011

I tried to write about the game in the immediate aftermath last night and got absolutely nowhere, but to be honest an extra 24 hours hasn’t made it make any more sense. You can be prepared for most things as a blogger – a close fought win, a thumping triumph, an unlucky defeat, a poor display, but now and then something extraordinary comes along and all of a sudden you’re lost for words.

Some days, the remarkable can be hugely enjoyable. The 7-0 triumph over Slavia Prague in 2007 was perhaps the most recent, such was the perfection of the display. But too often in the last couple of years, the freakish has been painful – losing a 4-2 lead to Spurs in injury time, failing to beat Liverpool despite a four goal Arshavin flurry, taking the lead in the 98th minute only to concede in the 102th, and then what we considered the nadir – blowing a four goal lead at Newcastle earlier in the year.

And then came yesterday. In fairness, the game itself arguably wasn’t the issue – it was the months that led up to it that laid the platform for the battering we all feared. I’ve never known so many nervous fans before a game, not because of a big occasion, but due to a feeling we all had that we could be in for an absolute hiding. Whatever we imagined, it was worse.

I’m not going to go through each of the individual goals – not only would that make the piece ridiculously long, but it seems churlish – no-one can take anything out of the game, not even the better performers (Szczesny was good, but conceding eight and having your goalkeeper play well is not a pleasant combination to consider). The problem was collective. Defensively we were an utter shambles, never more aptly demonstrated than Nani’s goal, one pass beating six defenders and leaving him with a ridiculous amount of time in the centre of the penalty area. Utterly crazy.

Yes, we were missing players, but so were they. To all those who bemoan the absences of Vermaelen and Sagna, undoubtedly our two most reliable defenders, you should consider that United were without their own prize central defensive pairing. The difference was they had reliable backup. When Danny Welbeck pulled his hamstring and was forced off, it was horribly ironic that the man who replaced him was Javier Hernandez, a superb striker bought for a pittance. Compare and contrast.

The facts are there for all to see. While Jenkinson was excellent in midweek, he is still incredibly raw, and we should only really be glimpsing him in the Carling Cup, purring at his promise. Instead, he is direct backup to both Sagna and Gibbs, a situation that means he will see a lot of action this season, too much in reality. Traore has been unrated within the club for a long time, and it said everything about our paucity of options that a man untrusted by his manager, and imminently moving to QPR, was thrust out there. Unsurprisingly, he looked like he didn’t care.

In the centre, Djourou continued his alarming decline, making the most basic of errors, and whilst Coquelin impressed in the holding role on debut, he is another who should be blooded in the first team in less exposed circumstances. Ironically, it was his substitution that acted as the catalyst for collapse – when Wenger took him off at 3-1, thrusting Oxlade-Chamberlain on (another debutant, it case you were counting), I feared the worst. Frankly, removing your defensive shield in front of a dysfunctional defence, no matter how raw, is suicidal, and without him we had nothing with which to repel to wave upon wave of United attack. It was depressing to watch.

Some are clinging to the silver lining that the result means the Arsenal hierarchy cannot ignore the problems any more. I’m not. Quite frankly, if the awareness wasn’t already there then we have even bigger problems – everyone else could see it long ago.

It is difficult to know how much can change in the next three days – in an ideal world we would get a central defender, a full back (preferably on the left), a creative central midfielder and a striker, all ready for first team action. That, combined with the return of a few players, would make our squad look competitive again. But not only is four signings remarkably unlikely, what damage has already been done, both for this season and the confidence of our young players? What of Jenkinson, a real talent, who was ruthlessly exposed and eventually sent off? What of Oxlade-Chamberlain, who ran around for half an hour, barely getting a touch, and seeing his side ship another five goals? What has it done to them?

Ten years ago, a 6-1 mauling at Old Trafford wrecked the career of the then-touted and now-maligned Igor Stepanovs. I would be surprised if this doesn’t have the same effect on someone.

But, we have to look forward. Roberto Martinez made a lot of sense on Match of the Day last night (yes, I put myself through it), talking about how clubs can recover from such a humiliation. And he should know – he sat in the dressing room after his Wigan side had shipped nine to Spurs a couple of years ago. He made the very good point that this is where you really learn about players – do they get angry and build something from nothing, ensuring that this is the rock bottom from which they climb? Or do they fall apart?

It can be mixed, but you learn nothing about players, or people, in the good times. You learn everything from situations like this. Let’s hope they react. Fast.

Arsenal weekend review – a satirist’s dream

Analysis, Arsenal News 12 Responses »

Aug 232011

Ten days into the season, and the ‘Arsenal in crisis’ stories have rarely been more prevalent. The opening exchanges of a new campaign have been, at best, fraught, and at worst, downright embarrassing.

Regular readers will know that I’m one of the most optimistic people out there (for example, I’d suggest that now is an excellent time to place a bet on us finishing in the top four – you’ll get good odds), but even I have to admit that the situation has progressed into the realms of the comical. Let’s just recap.

Three games gone – our major new signing, Gervinho, is one match into a three game suspension, Song is sitting on the sidelines for the same period while his impressive replacement, Frimpong, also misses our frankly frightening trip to Old Trafford. All banned. Alongside them, Wilshere hasn’t yet featured due to injury, Gibbs picked him his inevitable hamstring pull, Djourou followed after less than ten minutes on the field, and now Koscielny and Rosicky are also crocked. Add to that the Chamakh invisibility shield and Squillaci’s ~~absence due to be quite plainly awful and out of favour~~ ‘injury’, and the squad is looking staggeringly threadbare.

And I haven’t even mentioned the departures yet.

Back in March, we had a massive squad, and for once, they were largely fit. The bench was packed with talent, some getting increasingly frustrated with the lack of opportunities. Fast forward six months, and the inexperienced raw kids that you would want to see on a Carling Cup night have moved from the reserves, on to the bench, and then straight into our exposed team for vital early season clashes. Crazy doesn’t even begin to describe it.

Cesc, Nasri, Denilson (loan), Clichy, and Vela (loan) have gone, all players that played significant parts of last season. And behind them, JET, Randall and Traore (loan) have also been shunted out the exit door. Coming the other way, there is potential in Jenkinson, Miyaichi, Campbell and Oxlade-Chamberlain, but only the former has seen minutes so far and has, on occasion, looked as raw as you would expect a man so young to be. Only Gervinho has experience, and despite his early red card for slapping Joey Barton (frankly, I wish he had properly hit him, and he probably does too), he is at least a breath of fresh air. Relying on any of the others is as unfair on them as it is inevitable.

In the league, we have already paid a heavy price for the uncertainty around the squad. While we looked good defensively against Newcastle, we barely threatened, and that story was to repeat itself against Liverpool on Saturday, only for Ramsey’s freakish own goal to put the visitors in control, a lead they had never looked like gaining, but equally once ahead, one they were not going to let slip. Even the bright points were bittersweet – Frimpong was terrific but his sending off leaves us short of options for Old Trafford, while Nasri gave us a timely reminder of how good a player he can be before finally completing his move to Man City. A painful day all round.

The story in Europe is not as bad – despite a very impressive Udinese side coming to the Emirates looking for goals, they went away with nothing, leaving Walcott’s early strike the difference between the sides. Wilshere looks set to miss the second leg, but with the domestically suspended trio and Van Persie all available, we have a good chance of nicking the away goal that should send us through. And what a relief that would be.

However, even the silver lining of Europe has a cloud of frustration hanging over it, namely Wenger’s frankly nonsensical two match ban for ‘contravening the terms of his initial suspension’. Arsenal asked for clarity before the first leg, and were told by the UEFA delegate that Wenger could communicate with staff, but not be pitchside, in the dressing room or have any direct communication with the team until fifteen minutes after the final whistle. At half time, they changed their tune, saying he could not even communicate with staff, and despite him following that rule in the second period, they have still slapped him with a fine equal to one they often dish out for overt crowd racism, along with a two match suspension.

We should not be surprised, given Platini’s long standing feud with Wenger, but it still leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. They have spent the summer ignoring all forms of tapping up and financial irregularity, but have decreed this to be the hot topic that requires their attention. What a petty bunch of small minded morons.

Arsenal are appealing, but UEFA have already shown their hand by saying that the appeal will be heard after the second leg, during which Wenger will sit in the stands anyway. It is a farce no matter which way you look at it.

I have to say I’ve always found the concept of touchline bans odd. In what other profession could an organisation that is not the direct employer of an individual prevent them from walking into their place of work (owned by their employer, not the organisation), or even conversing with fellow employees? Just for laughs, I’d love to see it challenged in court – it is flimsier than Joey Barton’s conscience.

The only saving grace is that if this is the straw that breaks the camel’s back, that this is the catalyst for a siege mentality within the club, then it might eventually be seen as a good thing. Because right now, it feels like a scriptwriter is taking the piss.

“We’re going to get someone goaded by Joey Barton into getting suspended. Which club shall we go for?”

“Make it Arsenal. And make it two players. Oh, and make sure one of the players is the only player available in that position. And if they find a decent kid to replace him the following game, get him sent off too.”

“Great idea. Now we need to throw in a string of injuries in someone’s backline. They all have to be innocuous – you know, a back seizing up when no-one is near the player, a few muscle pulls, that sort of thing. All have to be defenders from the same club, just to put the shits up them.”

“Oh, make that Arsenal too. Everyone says they need defenders anyway, might as well give them an excuse to trot that line out again.”

“Ooo, I’ve just had this hilarious own goal idea where a defender boots it against another one, and it loops in. That’d be BRILLIANT. Maybe we should give that one to…..”

“Arsenal. Definitely Arsenal. And make one of the players a replacement defender for all those you crocked earlier. The irony will be hilarious. The manager will be livid. Find a way to ban him too. Just for a giggle.”

It is the sort of situation we find highly amusing in other clubs, but it is painful to have it happen to our own. Of course, it is fixable – we are utterly flush with money after receiving enormous sums for Cesc and Nasri, and with Wenger promising to spend before the window shuts, he has to find the right people, and quickly. Frankly, paying a little over the odds is to be expected now – everyone knows we’re desperate and holding out for the best deals would be futile. Get them done.

But first, we have an enormous match to tackle. I’m not talking about United, a game I was writing off even before I saw that Howard Webb had been put in charge, but Udinese. Qualification for the Champions League would be an enormous boost, and would leave no reason for players not to join. The alternative is not worth contemplating.

Tomorrow is pivotal.

Newcastle 0 Arsenal 0 – a game of fools

Arsenal News, Matches 32 Responses »

Aug 132011

Football is back, but it is not football that many will be talking about after an opening game that left a sour taste in the mouths of many that witnessed it. In truth, that is partly because, from a purely football point of view, there wasn’t a lot to talk about – despite a huge amount of possession, particularly in the first half, we created little, and Tim Krul was rarely and never seriously tested. Plenty of excellent positions were found, but all too often an extra touch was taken or the final ball was wayward, and those chances came and went. At the other end, Newcastle were wholly unambitious.

It had the feel of a pre-season game, perhaps because both sides came in undercooked and unsure of their squads. Newcastle have sold, we are missing players that we are about to sell, and both clubs have moves still to make before the end of August. It showed on the pitch – neither bench was particularly strong (you could argue ours had talent, but not experience), and both sets of players looked rustier than the usual opening day fare.

That said, there were positives, particularly at the back, where Koscielny impressed alongside Vermaelen, Gibbs surged forward well, and Szczesny dominated his area superbly, especially from set pieces. That defensive solidity was important – had we crumbled under pressure at the end and conceded a soft goal, the pitchforks would be out. As it is, it isn’t a spectacular result, but it isn’t a bad one either – given the nature of our squad situation, a point and a clean sheet away from home is nothing to lambast, although I’m sure many will.

Of course, the football will not make the headlines – instead, two flashpoints will, out of which neither club, or anyone involved, came out particularly well. The first incident involved Song and Barton – Song, already on a yellow, was riled by a Barton challenge and appeared to quite deliberately bring his studs down on the back of his leg, a moment of sheer stupidity fortunately missed by Peter Walton. In the moment, I defended Song on Twitter as it appeared to be an accident on first viewing, but having seen the replays it is clear that he does look down at Barton before choosing where to place his foot.

It was the kind of stupidity we thought we had eradicated from the club once Eboue had been ousted, and I have little doubt that an FA charge will follow. The only thing that might save him is if the FA turn a blind eye to it, because of the actions of his victim later in the game.

With a quarter of an hour to go, Gervinho, who was having an excellent debut, turned in the box and was clipped by Tiote. There was contact, but my first reaction was that it was a dive. He certainly went down easily – one of those moments where you claim the spot kick if your player goes down, but feel hard done by if it is given against you. What followed was far worse – Barton decided on the vigilante approach and hauled our new signing up by his neck and throat, an action that would eventually earn him a yellow card. Any sympathy from the neutrals for a man seemingly unhappy about a fellow professional going down easily were quickly eradicated when Gervinho’s light bitch slap reaction saw Barton tumble back to earth clutching (the wrong side of) his face in apparent agony.

Repeatedly, Barton then claimed to be the victim of a powerful punch, which is somewhat ironic since he should know exactly what one of those is, having dished plenty out both on and away from the football field. If he thought that a punch, I would certainly hesitate to believe what sort of ‘tough unbringing’ he really had. Equally risible was the reaction of Steven Taylor, who hounded anyone who would listen with claims that, in fact, it was a swinging elbow that saw Barton so mortally wounded. You would have thought Walton would have smelt a rat at such wildly different accounts, but sadly not.

Incidentally, all credit to ESPN’s Rebecca Lowe, who pressed that very point home in an interview with Taylor after the game, in which the player claimed not to have seen the incident at all. Lowe refused to move on, pointing out that that was a strange claim to make by a man who had insinuated quite the opposite in the immediate aftermath. In doing so, she exposed Taylor quite brilliantly. Well played.

But, and this is a big but, for all the cretinous and blood boiling behaviour of Barton, you cannot defend what Gervinho did – he raised his hands, slapped his opponent, and in doing so gave Barton exactly what he wanted. Because for those who question why Barton does these things, there is your answer – he got a yellow card, and he incited his opponent into getting sent off. In short, he won. He is not embarrassed by his actions, and I question the logic of the masses who send him abuse on Twitter – can you not see that he likes to know he gets to people? You are playing into his hands, people.

No-one came out of the situation well. Barton and Taylor looked like manipulative weasels, Song and Gervinho naive, foolish and a touch spiteful, and the officials weak. Even the managers made me cringe – Wenger by claiming he would appeal the sending off, and Pardew for seeing no wrong in what his player had done.

My take on what should have happened? Song, Barton and Gervinho should all have seen red, and all for violent conduct – Song for the stamp, Gervinho for the slap, and Barton for lifting him off the ground by his neck. But as I’ve already said, Barton won the day, because he is almost certainly the only one of the trio who will not be missing next weekend’s games through suspension. The more this tactic works, the more he will persist with it – he did for Diaby six months ago, and he has done it again.

I will say this though – when Robbie Savage is calling you out after the game, and the nation is nodding in agreement, you have officially reached a new low.

So now Wenger has to plan for a testing fortnight without more players – Song and Gervinho are both likely to be missing for games against Liverpool and United, and with the squad already thinner than we would like, some careful rotation will have to occur for the Champions League tie. It is an unenviable situation, but one that is entirely our own doing thanks to the end of season collapse that helped create the ‘spend some fucking money‘ chant that echoed around the away end in the final moments of the game. For the record, while I think the away fans are superb and have the right to sing whatever they want, the timing was off – we were defending solidly, and were trying to see out a final push from a side with an extra man. Not helpful in that moment, no matter how resonant the sentiment.

Overall, I am a little disappointed by the result without seeing it as a disaster, but I’m worried about the next couple of weeks. For so many reasons, the next fortnight is enormously important.

Despite the turgid game, it is good to have football back. Next up, Udinese.

Groan’s Premiership Preview – not as pessimistic as you might think

Analysis, Arsenal News 18 Responses »

Aug 122011

The new season gets underway tomorrow, and in traditional style I’ll be making some sensible and less than sensible predictions for coming nine months. It hasn’t been the best of summers, and I sincerely hope that our transfer activity isn’t finished, otherwise we’re pretty thin on the ground, but at the same time I don’t think we’re nearly in as bad shape as some are making out.

Everywhere I look, I see predictions putting us outside the top four, which is hardly a surprise – most predictions have had us fifth before each of the last five seasons, and with all the furore around the current summer, it was hardly likely that those who have profited from our summer of angst would suddenly see our squad in a bright light. That said, the ‘top four’ placing is under more threat than in any season in recent memory, simply because the Big Four is no more – Man City have certainly added to the mix, and it won’t be Liverpool missing out every year.

As such, I’m not expecting us to suddenly become English football’s dominant force, but equally I’m not predicting the end of days. The truth, as ever, is somewhere in between.

League Prediction – 3rd (Man United champions)

For all the noises about our lack of summer activity, we’ve actually been as prolific in the market as most of our rivals. The worry stems more from the players who may yet leave, will little regard to the possibility that others may come in as direct replacements. It is indicative of the strange breed of fan we seem to have in spades, those that only see the bad, never the promise, and on occasion delight in the disappointing days because it affords them the opportunity to blaze an ‘I told you so‘ trail across the internet.

I always feel refreshed at this point of the year – for all our worries and fears, we actually don’t know what lies ahead. That said, it is worth looking at the activity of those around us, and consider that until that dreadful collapse at the end of the season, we were comfortably ahead of all bar Man United. We’re not as bad as you may think.

Speaking of the champions, they have brought in Phil Jones and Ashley Young, while replacing the retiring Van der Sar with a keeper half his age. I still see them as the benchmark, and would not be surprised to see the retain the title. As for Chelsea, they have been quiet, and their old squad gets even older. That said, they have an excellent young manager, and even with Essien missing I can see them finishing second.

Beyond those two, however, I don’t believe we should be behind anyone come the season end. City are probably the biggest threat, but for all their spending it still feels like they lack something, as I don’t think they will be consistent enough to push on from last year, especially with a Champions League adventure to distract them. Liverpool will improve, but I look at signings like Downing and Henderson and think ‘those are the sort of signings Spurs make‘. And where do Spurs usually finish? 5th-6th.

As I said earlier, Liverpool will not miss out on the top four every season, but I don’t see any of their signings propelling them back into the mix just yet. They have lifted themselves away from Spurs, but I still feel they are between the top four and the rest, and as such I can see the top four places because taken up with the same teams as last year.

In conclusion – we’re better than Liverpool and Spurs, we’re behind United and Chelsea, and City will get distracted by a Champions League run. Third it is.

Cup Prediction – kids in the Carling Cup, and a run in the FA Cup

So close to lifting the Carling Cup last season, but once that final was lost, we collapsed in horrific fashion. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wenger saw that as some kind of justification for the approach he took to the competition in previous years, and I’d expect a return to it being used as a test arena for some of the younger players. However, if that happens, I expect more effort being put into the FA Cup than usual. I’m not saying we will end our trophyless spell, but we should give it a go.

As for the Champions League, I’m mixed. The group stage never holds many fears, so if we got that far I’d expect us to qualify with our usual ease. But the preliminary round is arguably harder, and I have to say I’m a touch nervous ahead of the tie with Udinese. Get through that, and I expect us to reach the knockout stages, although I still don’t feel we have enough to go all the way.

Transfer Prediction – Cesc, Nasri, Almunia, Bendtner and Eboue to leave, one central defender and one central midfielder to arrive

Before you go ballistic on me, please be aware that this is not what I want to happen, rather it is what I believe will happen. A couple of the exits may be on loan, particularly Bendtner, given his desperation to leave this summer, but I would be surprised to see any of that quintet pull on the red and white after this month. As for those coming in, I would be staggered if we didn’t complete on one of our defensive targets, and allowing Cesc and Nasri to both leave would surely be dependent on at least one more player replacing them in midfield.

If that all happens, then I see two major holes in our squad. One is at left back, where Gibbs has issues with both consistency and fitness, but the bigger one is up front. Unless we’re looking to move to a Barcelona model of a wealth of attacking midfielders with no out and out forward (Villa changed that, certainly, but without him they function in a unique way), we are seriously lacking in a backup for Van Persie. Chamakh looked woeful in pre-season, Bendtner and Vela may be shipped out, so who remains?

There are possibilities – either Gervinho or Walcott could play through the middle, or who knows, we might see Arshavin in the target man role again. That went well, right?

Player of the Season – Thomas Vermaelen

Simply put, if we are to succeed this season, we need to defend better, and that stems from better organisation. If Cesc leaves, I hope Vermaelen is given the vice captaincy behind Van Persie, and marshals the back four as we’ve needed someone too. We missed him badly last year, and a fit season could see him establish himself as one of the finest defenders in the league.

Breakthrough of the Season – Laurent Koscielny

Some would hand this to Aaron Ramsey, but I’m loathed to expect too much of the Welshman, after seeing what terrible injuries did to Diaby and Eduardo. Ramsey is a class act, but we should be mindful of what he has been through and how that can affect careers. So instead I’m plumping for another defender, a man who impressed me greatly last season, and could really push on this year. He was inconsistent as times in his debut season, but I expect bigger and better things this time around.

Press Target – Jack Wilshere

Young Jack was awesome last season, and will be again this time around. But I would give a word of warning – the media love to build someone up and then pull the rug from under their feet, and it feels like they’ve pushed him as high as they are willing to. Expect a media bashing when he has the inevitable dip that all young players have. How he deals with that will be telling – I expect him to ride that wave well.

Fan Target – Marouane Chamakh

It seems many of the Arsenal fanbase need someone to lampoon, but with Eboue and Bendtner on their way out, Almunia forgotten, and Squillaci relegated to fifth choice if we bring in the expected central defender, they are suddenly short of options. Cue Chamakh, who can expect some unhelpful abuse from the unhelpful idiots who think lambasting a player short of confidence is someone conducive to helping your team.

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And that is about that. As I said at the top, I have been disappointed by the summer, and I don’t think we’re in ideal shape – even a signing or two would probably leave us short for a genuine title challenge. But I still laugh at those putting us around sixth – compare our squad to the likes of Spurs and you might change your mind. Another trophyless season? Perhaps, but not a disastrous one either.

Here we go again.