The Beautiful Groan

1. The governing bodies have finally succeeded in stacking the deck so firmly in favour of the major footballing nations that it is almost impossible for them not to qualify. Portugal won just two of their first seven games, but still managed to reach the playoffs simply because over the course of such a long group, they had time to recover. Now that FIFA have decided to seed the playoffs (at the last minute), they are firm favourites to qualify, undeservedly.

Italia 90 was my first World Cup, and I remember the old format – groups of four with one qualifier, groups of five with two, and since there was a lack of genuine minnows (no San Marinos back then), all the games were tough. France, Denmark and, ironically, Portugal failed to qualify despite having far better records against far tougher opposition than the Portuguese have managed this time around.

2. If the European system is bad, then the South American is a joke. Argentina lost six games and still qualified. How can a small nation possibly overachieve for eighteen games and qualify?

3. Argentina might have qualified, but under Maradona they are no threat for the World Cup itself. They look utterly disjointed, lacking in any tactical plan, and reliant on a couple of individuals to fire them through. Look at their team on Wednesday – some of it was excellent (Messi, Mascherano, Higuain), but the rest aren’t likely to scare anyone. Romero, Otamedi, and di Maria are all inexperienced, Veron will be 35 in March, and Guiterrez is hardly lighting up the Championship with Newcastle. And with Maradona in charge, there is always scope for crazy selections – Aguero wasn’t even on the bench.

4. David Beckham looks like an idiot. Seriously, what is with the caveman look?

5. Mind you, he can still play a bit, and will surely go to South Africa. But giving him the man of the match award for a half an hour appearance is a slap in the face for the rest of the players.

6. What has happened to Romania? Once a force in world football, they ended fifth in their group, sandwiched in between Lithuania and the Faroes, having been hammered 5-0 by Serbia at the weekend. Gheorghe Hagi must be despairing.

7. Croatia have fallen a long way since Euro 2008 too, where they were seconds away from the semi final. Ukraine’s inevitable victory over Andorra put them out, and to add insult to injury, neighbours Serbia won France’s group and even Bosnia have made the playoffs.

8. Egypt are doing their best to continue their woeful qualifying record – they haven’t played in the competition since 1990, despite winning the African Nations Cup three times since (twice, ironically, in the year of World Cups they failed to reach – 1998 and 2006). They must now beat Algeria, their undefeated group leaders, by three goals in the final match to qualify. A two goal victory would actually see both sides finish with identical records, and a 3-1 victory would cancel out the scoreline Algeria won their first meeting by, and would result in the drawing of lots.

9. The FIFA World Rankings are a joke. Looking at the top 25 to see who had surprisingly failed to qualify, you’ll find Croatia in ninth, which is a fair reflection of their recent success, the Czechs in 18th after a woeful campaign, Bulgaria in 19th, and then, in 22nd, Israel. Israel??? Fourth behind Switzerland, Greece and Latvia (who are, incidentally, way down in 47th, two places behind Gabon) in the current group, they also came fourth in qualifying for Euro 2008, and haven’t played in a major tournament since their one and only appearance in the World Cup in 1970. Why are they up in 22nd?

10. International fortnights stretch on painfully. Okay, we already knew that one.

At last, it is over, and from tomorrow, the real football returns. I’ll be previewing that later. Until then, enjoy your Friday.

I’m finding it increasingly difficult to take this transfer window seriously. Other than a couple of stories with potential, it seems that the media are either making up outlandish rumours, or rehashing the stupid ones they used a year ago. Here are ten Arsenal rumours that bear no relation to reality:

1. Eboue to Inter Milan. Starting with one that the media are blameless for, we have Eboue, having a terrible season but apparently coveted by Inter. Now, all Mourinho probably remembers Eboue for is breaking John Terry’s foot, and that alone isn’t likely to appeal. This seems to be a classic case of an agent making a player believe he is a lot better/more desired than he really is.

2. Yaya Toure from Barcelona. Brother already at the club – check. Plays in a position we’re short in – check. Perfect story! Except for the fact that if Wenger had ever wanted the younger Toure, he would already have him. He’s had plenty of chances to sign Yaya, including a trial a few years ago, and this story is just pure media laziness.

3. Charles N’Zogbia from Newcastle. “It’s my dream to play for Arsenal”. Big whoop, it’s mine too, but unfortunately, I’m a bit rubbish, and so are you, Charles.

4. Tevez from MSI. If United don’t intend to buy Tevez, some are saying he’ll leave in January. First off, why would he leave in January when his loan runs until the summer? And secondly, if United don’t want to pay 32 million for him, there’s no way we will.

5. Cesc and RVP to Barcelona for 45m. Another classic media syndrome – when journalists continue to out do each other until the lie is so fanciful it is reported as a ’story’. Snore.

6. Diaby to Inter. Another apparent exit as part of the ‘crisis exodus’, Arsenal are apparently going to sell a man they are currently showing a lot of faith in. Okay then.

7. David Villa from Valencia. Yes, they’re in financial trouble, and yes, they probably will sell. But not until the summer.

8. Walcott anywhere. There are various rumours flying around that Walcott will walk at the end of the season for free, so will instead be sold early. This is frankly ridiculous.

9. Wenger to Real Madrid. What genius keeps thinking of this one? Wenger loves the stability and backing at Arsenal, and constantly says how managing Real would not be for him. So why the constant rumours?

10. Okay, so there are only nine.

I was sorely tempted to add Arshavin in as number ten, because I find myself having serious doubts as to whether we’re actually that interested. I wouldn’t be surprised if Spurs or Man City came in with 18m-20m and snapped him up, and I’m not even entirely sure Wenger would be that fussed.

But as for the rest, it strikes me that the press can’t even be bothered to make up new stories anymore. I’m slightly surprised we haven’t had more stories about Frey, Given, Buffon and Trezeguet.

February can’t come soon enough.

1. Arsenal managed 71 points from 38 games played in 2008, with 36 from the last 18 of last season, and 35 from the first 20 of this. 71 points in a league season has always been comfortably enough to finish in the top four, which suggests that we are well on the way to Champions League football next season. Chelsea had the best 2008, with 86 points.

2. Despite many predicting that Villa will break the Big Four hold, they actually only managed 58 points in 2008, far fewer than the big teams, because they amassed only 20 points in 18 games at the end of last season. Given that their squad is no bigger this time around, and that their European interest is still strong, it would not be a surprise for history to repeat itself and their challenge to fade.

3. Statistics would actually point to Everton being the closest challengers to the big teams this season, after amassing 64 points in 2008. They’ve done it before, back in 2005, but have to come from behind to do it this time, unlike that season.

4. We have kept clean sheets in only fourteen of 38 games, only around a third, which is plainly not good enough. Proportionally however, we managed the same in the first half of 2008 as the second half, which actually suggests that the oft-mooted reason of Flamini leaving in the summer may not be the whole story.

5. We have failed to score four times in 2008, against Wigan last season, and Fulham, Villa and Man City this. Four in 38 is not too bad, but the opposition the shut outs have come against have been a surprise.

6. Fourteen times in 2008 we scored in a Premiership match but didn’t win it. On three of those occasions we managed two goals without winning, while that match against Spurs saw our four goals still not bring the points home.

7. Of the fourteen matches we scored in but did not win, we actually led in nine of them, but could not hold on to the advantage. No other big side lets leads slip as often as us.

8. The often spoken points target of 40 points to avoid relegation is now a myth. Last season six clubs failed to reach the magic number, while 36 was enough to save Fulham. This season should be similar, with Bolton 11th and still only heading for 43 points. 36-37 should be enough once again in the closest relegation battle in years.

9. Perhaps the biggest unheralded success story of 2008 has been Wigan. In the drop zone this time last year, they have managed 52 points in the calendar year and in only 37 games. If they keep that up they’ll be in Europe next term.

10. Arsenal finally managed to win again at Stamford Bridge, and mirrored the 2003/04 success by coming from behind to triumph 2-1. And that season’s team did okay, really…

A compilation of ten things we’ve just come to accept in our game:

1. If you play the ball past an opponent and run into them, they will get a yellow card irrespective of whether they moved to block your path, or simply stood their ground, as they are permitted to do.

2. Once added on time has been announced, it can only be increased by serious injuries. Any goals (which should add an additional minute) or substitutions (which should add thirty seconds) after the announcements will not increase the total.

3. Speaking of injury time, there can only be whole minutes of it. ‘There will be a minimum of three minutes’ does not mean there could be 3:15, 3:40 or even 3:59 of added time, it means precisely three minutes.

4. The ‘Sensible Soccer’ rule: The full time whistle can only be blown when the ball is in the middle third of the pitch, preferably after a defensive clearance.

5. If the ball strikes you on the hand anywhere on the pitch, it is always a free kick. But if you are inside your own penalty area, it has to have been deliberate, otherwise the award of a penalty is deemed ‘harsh’.

6. You cannot be booked twice in the same incident. You can use this to your advantage if you have committed a foul you know you’ll be booked for, by riling the other player into reacting. Even if your reactions are equal, they will receive a yellow card for it and you will only get the yellow for the initial foul.

7. For the first 85 minutes of the game, you can take twenty seconds preparing to take a throw in, and if losing or drawing, that continues. But if you are winning by a single goal and in the final five minutes, make sure you take the throw in within five seconds or you’ll be booked for timewasting. This is especially the case if you are the underdog and under the cosh away from home.

8. You may be penalised for raising your foot too high if you take the ball above waist height. But overhead kicks are fine, even if the ball is an inch from the defender’s nose when you strike it.

9. And on the topic of being penalised for a raised foot, if two players go for the same high ball, the one who wins the ball will always be the one who gives away the free kick.

10. To get a free kick for a shirt pull while chasing after the ball, all you have to do is stop running and shrug in frustration towards the referee. This works even if it was you doing the shirt pulling.

Feel free to add your own…

The summer is over, and the transfer merry go round is starting. Every day a few new players are linked, some sound plausible, others most definitely do not. Here are ten of those that will not be happening this year, complete with links to the original story.

1. Robinho. Consistently linked, you have to imagine that if Wenger really wanted to sign him for a considerable fee, he would have done so already. He has gone on record to say he admires the Brazilian, but the fees that are being suggested are simply out of the question.

2. Roque Santa Cruz .Adebayor scored thirty goals last season, Van Persie can score twenty five if fit. Walcott is beginning to shine, Bendtner is waiting in the wings and Vela will be used as a squad striker. Plus Eduardo is on the mend. Sure, not many of these are established, but you can’t become established until given the chance, much like Ade this season. Wenger will not sign a striker this summer.

3. Mauro Zarate. Nothing like a few good games to suddenly get the media salivating. Zarate, on loan from Qatar club Al Saad (where he’d been dropped), produced the odd moment of magic for Birmingham, but was inconsistent, and didn’t convince McLeish to regularly start him. Now, apparently, Arsenal are interested in paying over 10 million for him. I think not.

4. Yaya Toure. Kolo’s little brother can be as interested as he wants in joining him at Arsenal, but he has had trials here before, and Wenger had plenty of opportunities to sign him. He chose not to, and I see no reason why he would now.

5. David Villa. Another who is interested in coming, but Wenger isn’t interested in signing. He is an excellent striker, but we’re stocked in that department.

6. Sebastien Frey. Another summer, another link to Frey. Watch for the links to Buffon, I’m sure those equally unfounded stories will crop up in time.

7. Alberto Aquilani. Classic agent garbage – “Aquilani is speaking to Arsenal. We will have to see if Roma will be able to match his demands.” Watch him sign a new contract in the coming weeks, earning his agent a nice fat paycheck.

8. Lillian Thuram. Seriously, when was the last time Wenger signed a 36 year old?

9. Thierry Henry. Wenger sold him, he hasn’t looked that great since, is now more injury prone than ever and the wrong side of thirty. Plus Wenger never re-signs players he has previously sold. He’ll always be a legend, but he isn’t coming back.

10. David Dein. No matter what he plants in newspapers, no matter what he says or does now, he isn’t returning, at least while the current board are in charge. Edelman may have gone, but he was far from Dein’s only enemy, and the orange one’s actions over the past year make this utterly impossible.