Amongst all the speculation around Cesc’s future, there is one line I keep hearing, time and time again: ‘There is no point keeping a player who wants to leave’. With player power never more dominant than in the present game, those producing that statement would have you believe that contracts are not worth the paper they are written on.

The argument is always that if you force a player to stay, they will coast through games, or worse, become a disruptive influence in the dressing room. Then, you are backed into a corner and forced to sell a short while later, but at a cut price.

For many, that is certainly true. Adebayor alone was proof of what can happen when a player sets his heart elsewhere (although City paid over the odds in the end), especially if work rate was what made that player so useful in the first place. But Cesc isn’t like Adebayor, he knows no other way than to give everything in every single game, and furthermore he actually cares about Arsenal, about Wenger and about the fans.

If Barcelona do not cough up the required funds to take him back to Spain, he will stay, and I’m certain that he fully understands our stance on that. Moreover, he is sensible and mature enough to respect the position, and if our demands are not met, he will return to captain the club before reigniting the transfer some time in the future.

The crucial point is this – Cesc will not let himself blame Arsenal if the proposed move does not go ahead this summer. No doubt he already knows our valuation of him, and one way or another Barcelona will too. If they do not pay it, that is their problem, and their fault, not ours.

Many point to Vieira and Henry as evidence of players who went on to have poor final seasons after being convinced by Wenger to delay prospective moves away from the club. But both were moving past their peak, and Henry in particular was struggling with a myriad of injuries that continued into his first season at Barcelona. It is hardly as if their form returned to previous heights once sold.

Cesc has no such worries, and if we’re looking for evidence of what can happen when a player remains focused, we should look no further than our most recent signing, Marouane Chamakh. He knew of our interest and offer last summer, he knew his contract was coming to an end, and with his move inevitable, he still had the most impressive season of his career before leaving Bordeaux.

Cesc will eventually move to Barcelona – he knows it, we know it – but if that move is delayed, even by a single year, he will do everything he can to ensure he lifts a trophy before heading home.

Taking that into consideration, Barcelona have no cards to play. They are targeting an intelligent, responsible and improving player on a long contract. Pay up or look elsewhere.

 

It was long, it was drawn out, but in the end it was inevitable – Marouane Chamakh has become our first signing of the summer, a year after Wenger originally wanted him, but now costing nothing and providing far more value than the overblown price Bordeaux were demanding this time last year. A player with a year left on their contract does not command the fees that were being asked, so the French club have only themselves to blame for getting nothing twelve months on.

Some point to Chamakh’s less than prolific goalscoring record for Bordeaux (55 in eight years and 227 appearances), but that is deceptive – he has scored 34 times in the last two seasons, and anyone who saw his Champions League exploits will attest to his ability in the big games, and that he offers a completely different option up front, instantly becoming our best aerial option. Bendtner isn’t far behind, but I’ve always felt the Dane is better on the ground that most people of his build.

It is also worth noting that Chamakh’s 27 goals in 55 internationals is a far better return that the likes of Adebayor, and is not far off Drogba’s contributions for a superior Ivory Coast team.

In any case, whatever certain doubters say, you can’t go too wrong with a regular Champions League and international scorer who arrives on a free. A good start to the summer, certainly.

So with one transfer saga done and dusted, attention turns to the other. You’ll notice I haven’t posted anything about the Cesc situation since getting dismayed by the overblown reactionof the first 24 hours after the story broke, and with good reason – nothing has happened, at least not in the public eye.

There has been no quote from Arsenal, Arsene, Cesc or anyone else. The only noises are coming from Barcelona, who have come out with so much tosh over the last few days that frankly it would make anyone question whether they would want to join. Suggestions that they are entitled to our star player at a discount because he is a Barcelona boy are absurd and insulting. We are right to take a stance, demand an astronomical fee, and watch as Barcelona realise they cannot afford it. If they really are struggling to go above £30m, they are not going to get him.

For me, the most important thing is that Cesc is the sort of intelligent character who will not burn his bridges with Arsenal in the way the likes of Adebayor have in the past. If the two clubs cannot agree a fee (a very realistic prospect), he will undoubtedly give his all for us next season, before making the inevitable move at a more suitable time in the future. There will be no pointed badge-kissing followed by a string of lazy performances – he is better than that.

For that reason, we hold the cards – either way we win. A huge transfer sum would allow a complete rebuilding of the squad, a failure to agree the transfer would still leave us with a player giving his all. Whatever happens, I am not filled with dread – I would of course prefer him to stay, but with Barcelona not wielding the power they assumed they automatically had, any deal would favour us.

One way or another, it is likely to be resolved in the early part of the summer – all we can do is wait and see.

 

It has all kicked off today, hasn’t it?

We always knew this would be the summer of Cesc, or more pertinently, the summer of incessant transfer rumours surrounding our captain, irrespective of whether any truth lay within the articles. Barcelona’s presidential campaign ensured that, and our end to the season allowed the assembled hacks to play their ‘Arsenal in crisis’ trump card.

Today’s rumours began from a fairly innocuous source. Spanish paper AS carried a story in which Joan Laporta (who, remember, will not be Barcelona president much longer) claimed both Cesc and David Villa had expressed a desire to move to Barcelona, with Villa’s negotiations progressing more smoothly of the pair. The Guardian followed up by reporting the story as fact.

Since then, it has been rumour and counter rumour. Various media folk are suggesting that the story is well-sourced, but there is little concrete evidence to suggest that this is anything other than the overblowing of another Spanish media attempt to unsettle a player.

In short, most of us do not know the facts.

What has been incredibly frustrating to watch is the hysteria that has surrounded the story. The day has essentially followed the following pattern:

  • Stage 1 – denial. The story written off as garbage.
  • Stage 2 – hype. More and more people jumped on the bandwagon, giving the story far more credibility than it had previously – whether or not the story turns out to be true, this is the surefire way of legitimising a rumour.
  • Stage 3 – panic. A slew of articles about Arsenal in meltdown, calls for Wenger’s head and the complete removal of the board.
  • Stage 4 – abuse. Suddenly Cesc is disloyal, contemptuous of the fans, and not even that great a player. Worse still, his sister gets a torrent of disgusting abuse on Twitter.
  • Stage 5 – claims of knowledge. Certain members of the written press actually have some knowledge, as do perhaps 5% of bloggers, but most are simply inventing a unique angle on the outcome. Yaya Toure is a makeweight. No, hang on, Ibrahimovic is coming the other way. Or maybe they’ll give us a keeper. Or Xavi.

I have to be honest – it has been truly awful to watch. Fans turning on each other, the management, the players – anyone they can turn their anger on. Hype has turned into hysteria, worry into panic, disappointment into the worst kind of abuse. I have had absolutely no desire to even attempt to add reason to the debate – those who have tried have been comprehensively drowned out by the wailing of the masses.

In the absence of concrete quotes (from reliable sources, at least) or a desire to invent a brand new angle (we’ll have Iniesta, Bojan and £60m please), I thought it wise instead to return to the facts.

Cesc will return to Barcelona at some point. We all know that, and that knowledge ensures that we cannot simply write off these sorts of rumours as complete garbage. One summer, they will be true.

That said, Cesc’s most recent quotes indicated that he intends to stay at Arsenal for a while yet. Of course, his mind could have been swayed by a number of factors – the end to our season, Barcelona’s superiority in the Champions League, or even something as fundamental as missing home.

If any of those reasons have driven him to request a transfer, then I fail to see why we can possibly hold it against him. A return to your hometown would be appealing to any man or woman in any profession, especially if that homecoming included a hefty payrise and the joining of perhaps the biggest name in your field of work (the analogy’s getting weak here, I know).

However, Arsenal are in better financial shape than they have been in years, so Barcelona cannot drive a hard bargain. Cesc will understand the economics of the situation – if Arsenal do not receive an excellent valuation, he won’t leave - it really is as simple as that. He has four years to run on his contract, and seems level headed enough to realise that if Barcelona under-offer, the transfer will not occur.

The key difference between this potential transfer and so many others is that Cesc’s value is not going to drop – he is young and miles away from the end of his current deal. Under normal circumstances, clubs are forced to cash in to avoid losing their star men for free, but we have no such worries.

If Cesc leaves, it will be a bitter blow, but we will recover as we have in the past. If he stays, he will continue to lead in his inspirational fashion.

Either way, I’ll support him from the rafters. Unlike so many raising their voices today, the man has acted with class throughout.

 

The season is drawing to a close, the transfer window is approaching and minds are switching to exactly what we need to put in a more sustained challenge next season. Wenger has pinpointed the problem, and it is hardly a surprising assessment:

“Where we want to set ourselves a target next season is we have conceded nearly 40 goals – that is too many to win the championship and is where we want to improve.”

A frank and fair analysis, I’d say. Prior to Van Persie’s injury the talk was about us reaching the 100 goal mark in the Premiership, which goes to show how potent an attacking force we were. His absence left the forward line stretched, unbalanced and lacking the numbers to rotate, whichwould have enabled the heavier pressing that marked the beginning of the campaign. Already the manager seems to have resolved that with the signing of Chamakh to ensure that at no point next season will we be lacking a genuine front man.

The problem, as Wenger rightly says, is the defence, and particularly the goalkeeping and central defensive positions. But I don’t go along with those who suggest we need a bunch of signings in this area, and I’d go as far as ruling it out as a possibility.

We will not sign more than one centre half this summer, even if Gallas leaves. Wenger likes to go into a season with four recognised centre backs, and given that he still considers Song a viable fill in option, it would be unrealistic to suggest that his thinking will change.

Last season, we had Gallas and Vermaelen as the stand out first choice pairing, with Djourou as the main reserve and Silvestre the emergency. Senderos was technically on the books, but was never in Wenger’s plans. Djourou missed the entire campaign, but is still rated highly enough to retain that squad status – becoming a first team regular is an unlikely move given that his injury has prevented any progress in his career.

Campbell replaces Silvestre as the emergency option at fourth choice, so the only change is likely to be a straight swap between the outgoing Gallas, who would surely have put pen to paper by now were he planning to stay, and a prospective new signing.

While I admit that may leave us a little light at the back – Campbell cannot play twice in a week and Djourou hasn’t proved he can stay clear of injury for a long stretch, I cannot see Wenger upping the numbers any further. Signing a replacement partner for Vermaelen is essential assuming Gallas does leave, but beyond the main four Wenger will rely on Song filling in, or one of the youngsters (perhaps Bartley, who turns 19 later this month).

The other main talking point over the past few days has been a series of ‘quotes’ from Arshavin, seemingly linking him to Barcelona. First he said it would be the pinnacle of his career, which sounded fairly hypothetical when you heard it in context, and then the official site put out a denial.

Now the People are claiming that they have official quotes from him, which on paper look clear cut:

“I am going to Barcelona in the summer.  ”I have always dreamed about going to Spain and playing for the best team in the world.”

“They were unsure about me when I was playing in Russia but I have shown them that I’m the real deal and I know they are ready to talk to me.”

Frankly, I would be staggered if these quotes were genuine. Outspoken he may be, but this would seem wildly out of character for the Russian. He isn’t afraid to call a spade a spade, but this is too much. I remain unconvinced by the legitimacy of the story.

Also, we have a game today. Strange to relegate an actual match to the end of the piece, but that is the nature of the end of season trundle we find ourselves in. However, any match against Sam Allardyce should be motivation not to let the 90 minutes drift by, so fingers crossed we can stick our usual quota of goals past Paul Robinson.

Van Persie in particular enjoys playing Blackburn – he has seven in seven against them – so the Dutchman scoring the first goal is my bet of the day, and you can get 7/2 with Sportingbet on that.

We still need a couple of points to secure third, and Ewood Park has been a tough place to go this season, so it won’t be easy. On the other hand, we are in danger of ending the season so poorly that the whole campaign takes on a different complexion, and it is up to the players to change that.

Enjoy the game.

 

Coming into every transfer window, our squad is analysed, and a position on the field is pinpointed as “The Weakness”. From that moment on, every player who can fill that role is tipped as a potential signing, with no attention paid to the player’s current allegiances, squad role, or value. Or even if he is any good.

Over the past couple of years, the focus has been on the midfield holding role. Every defensive midfielder in the world seems to have been linked at some point, with extra column inches afforded if he can also fill in at the back. The emergence of Alex Song has at least silenced those particular voices, with the exception of those still flogging the Yaya Toure angle.

For a while since, it seemed as if strikers would be top of the media list. Van Persie’s injury left us without a recognised target man for long stretches, and with Eduardo’s alarming loss of form, everyone was clamouring to link us with Europe’s top names.

But then Bendtner started scoring, the Chamakh transfer became old news, and people moved on.

Or rather, they moved back, all the way to our number one jersey, previously ignored due to our perceived strength in depth – Mannone and Szczesny showing promise and Fabianski still a much vaunted prospect.  With Almunia dropping clangers left, right and centre, Fabianski came in, contrived to make the Spaniard seem a better option, and suddenly we were in disarray.

Since then, there have been calls to sign pretty much any keeper able to pull on a pair of gloves. The old names of Frey and Buffon have come up, laughably, while closer to home many see better options in the Premiership.

One name has come up time and time again – Lyon’s Hugo Lloris. Tim at 7am Kickoff gave a comprehensive explanation of exactly why the Frenchman won’t be arriving – it is a classic example of wishing a player was ours who never could be. It is a fanciful idea to imagine us paying the ridiculous price Lyon would demand – they don’t need the money.

The same is true of Igor Akinfeev, whose name keeps cropping up largely because he is a monster in Football Manager. He would cost a fortune this summer – CSKA Moscow are heavily bankrolled, and at 23 Akinfeev is already their club captain. His contract runs out in December 2011, making him a more likely mover next summer, if at all.

Then there is Joe Hart. His passport alone hikes up his price, although he is certainly a promising young keeper. Butis he overhyped? Imagine if Vito Mannone was English – would we have heard the last of his Fulham display? I’m not doubting Hart’s potential, but that is what it is – potential. Is he ready to be a number one at a top club? I’m not convinced.

The ball is firmly in Wenger’s court, but the good news is that he is planning to make his moves early, or at least he will for any player featuring in the World Cup. Four years ago he signed Rosicky at a cut price before he single-handedly destroyed USA in the Czech Rep’s opening match – had Wenger waited he would surely have been forced to raise his offer.

The World Cup is a blessing and a curse – on the one hand it stops the papers being filled with ridiculous transfer stories,but on the flip side individuals get massively overhyped based on a performance or two. Remember El Hadji Diouf for Senegal? Or Karel Poborsky? It even happens at junior level – after one Under 21 tournament the whole world was interested in Royston Drenthe. Real Madrid bit the bullet, and he’s barely been heard of since.

In July and August, prepare yourself for a deluge of stories linking us to some Algerian keeper who makes a couple of decent stops against England.

In other news, Sol Campbell seems interested in signing for another year, but hasn’t yet sat down with Wenger to discuss an extension:

“I think the boss will want to sit down and have a chat and we’ll go from there. I’m really enjoying my football.  I’m working hard and the fitness coaches, along with all the staff, have done wonders for me here. “

“Being in an environment of this quality is perfect for me to play football, work hard and keep on going. It’s fantastic to be here.”

I don’t think you’d find too many opposed to another year, but I suspect Wenger is waiting for Gallas to make his move before putting the deal on the table.

And that’s about it for today. This should be the last Wednesday for a while without a podcast, which is still planned for launch next week, so stay tuned for that.

Until tomorrow.

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