I think we’re all in agreement that this is the best option. There are of course a few that believe the board need the wound of not qualifying for the Champions League to reassess, but I don’t buy that – if the powers that be within the club cannot see the issues we have, then nothing will make them. Wenger himself has been talking this week about our overreliance on Van Persie, and he has already made moves to release that burden with the signing of Podolski. Were we to guarantee ourselves the Champions League bonanza for another season, I would expect more to follow.

Where many disagree is what would be the best scenario were we to fail today. Most would plump for fourth, and hope that Bayern do us a favour by stopping Chelsea rendering fourth place meaningless. The logic of that argument is that a chance of Champions League football is better than no chance at all, and it is logic I can see and understand.

But I disagree, strongly, as I’ve spoken about before.

Many consider falling out of the Champions League as a bit of a doomsday scenario, and from a purely financial point of view, it would be a bitter blow – just look at Liverpool to see how far back it can set a club. But I think there is a worse scenario than finishing fifth (or fourth with Chelsea winning this year’s final) and knowing in May that you will be competing in the Europa League.

For me, the worst case is finishing fourth, facing a qualifier and then doing exactly what we did this season – waiting until late August to see whether we qualified or not, and planning to conduct our business in a late flurry based on our newly enhanced budget.

And then losing that qualifier, with only days left to paper over the cracks.

And for those who think this is an extremely unlikely situation, it isn’t. Since the changes Platini made to the Champions League qualification process, we would always be facing a decent team in that preliminary round, not the champions of Luxembourg. The draw is fixed that way these days. Quite what would have happened to our season had we lost to Udinese back in August (and that tie could have gone either way) does not bear thinking about. Would we have had the finances to sign the likes of Arteta, without whom we have yet to win a league game?

Put it this way – if we are to play in the Europa League next season, it would be better to find out in May, when we have three months to plan accordingly before the season starts, than in late August, when the season is already underway and we have mere days left of the transfer window. Not only that, but this season shows that even victory in that qualifying round doesn’t protect you from the hiccup of having to conduct your business so late in the day. A repeat of that risk is unlikely to be tolerated by many.

Fourth is seen as a holy grail by many in the Premiership and the majority of the media. But for me, third is the holy grail and fourth can be something of a poisoned chalice. Consider my perfect scenario for how this plays out – we win and finish third, Spurs finish fourth, Bayern win the Champions League and Spurs lose their qualifying round in August, and are sent into a tailspin by the setback. Chances are, Redknapp will already have spent the money they would get in the group stage. Assuming he is even still there.

That hilarious scenario is based on Spurs finishing fourth, not fifth. If they finish fifth, they will plan for the season ahead with adjusted expectations and budgets, but plenty of time. Perversely, that would be better for them.

One of these days, a club will take the gamble we took this year, waiting until late August before acting, and they will lose that gamble by getting knocked out. I don’t want that to be us.

I hope this is all moot, I really do – a win at West Brom guarantees that. Whatever happens – I want us to know where we stand at 5pm today, not August 28th.

Arsenal fans don’t take a lot of riling. Most football fans are a sensitive bunch, but it seems that our club has more than its fair share of the bipolar. One minute we are a signing or two away from seriously challenging for honours next season, the next we’re doomed to abject mediocrity. And often the difference is the width of the post. Literally (not in a Redknappian sense, but actually literally).

This post is going to require a preface, so here we go – one point from a pair of homes games isn’t a great return, and neither performance could be described as inspiring, or will live long in the memory. But I’m still left with the confused view of a man who seems to have seen a different couple of games from the most vociferous of supporters. The team were accused of things I don’t believe to be accurate, and the wrong players continue to be singled out for unnecessary and frankly pathetic abuse. Let’s start with Wigan.

Wigan

The general consensus from the Wigan game is that we were complacent. Lazy. Felt we just ‘needed to turn up to win’ (or whatever that ridiculous phrase is). It has become accepted fact that we breezed through the game without a care in the world, handing a victory to the opposition without putting up a fight.

That’s not what I saw.

I saw a poor performance. I saw players making the wrong decisions in the final third, players not quite connecting with their efforts on goal as they would like, players who occasionally mislaid crucial passes. And of course, I saw a shabby opening fifteen minutes that ultimately cost us the game.

However, I did see effort. I saw a team desperately looking to break down an impressive Wigan team who defending manfully and skilfully. I saw players making passes that were inches away from being perfect. I saw tracking back, and determination going forward. In essence, I saw what I wanted to see – a team who wanted to win and were willing to put in the hard yards to do so.

Sometimes, you don’t win football matches, and it isn’t always because you were complacent. I feel people are too quick in their efforts to find snap explanations for draws and defeats – it always has to be because we were lazy, or that at least three players were a disgrace to the shirt. You never hear anyone say ‘sometimes, shit happens‘. Look at United yesterday – 3-1 and 4-2 up against an Everton side who have struggled for goals, and they blew it, drawing 4-4 and letting City back into the title race. Were they complacent? Were they cocky? Or was it just one of those days?

Hats off to Wigan, by the way. They were brilliant on the night. We all stayed behind to applaud them off, which felt like a nice touch (well, when I say ‘all’, I mean those that remained – around me I reckon only about one in three seats were still occupied at the final whistle, which I hated). I hope they stay up, I really do.

Chelsea

And so to Saturday lunchtime, and a home game against a Chelsea side who made some changes and parked the bus ahead of their second leg with Barcelona on Tuesday night. Last time we watched Chelsea on a Saturday lunchtime, they played out a bore draw with Spurs, and this was no different. Calling it attritional would be paying it a compliment. Yet we still had the best chances – Van Persie would normally bury at least one of his, hitting the post from Walcott’s free kick and firing straight at Cech later on, while Koscielny was also unlucky to see his header crash back off the crossbar. In a week where the woodwork favoured Chelsea enormously, they could and should have lost to us and Barcelona, but escaped on both occasions. That isn’t to say that we were complacent, poor or lazy, or even that Chelsea defended that well, but sometimes you get matches were the narrow margins go against you.

Consider this. For about three years, Chelsea beat us routinely, both home and away. And what’s more – we got used to it. We went into games hoping for a result, but secretly preparing for the inevitable defeat. Now, they come away from the Emirates delighted with a fortunate point that doesn’t even help them that much, while we look on, disappointed. How times change.

Players

Not only did I feel that some of the reporting of the team performances this week was inaccurate, but I felt the assessment of some of the individual players was off kilter too. I think most of us would accept that Arsenal fans have particular targets when things aren’t going well, and while some of that is borne out of a succession of poor displays or poor attitude (read: Eboue), some of it is less warranted. The usual suspects bore the brunt again this week, none more so than Aaron Ramsey, who I will return to in a moment.

Do you know which players I thought were poor this week? Van Persie had two sub-par games, Song was below par too, Sagna was unusually shaky against Wigan, while Walcott did little in either game. Even the Ox was anonymous. Now, reading that list, I’m pretty sure I can gauge many of your reactions, and they will be angry. How dare I criticise those players, you may ask? Well, here’s the thing – you can say a player has had a poor week without abusing them, without saying they are crap or should be sold. There is a middle ground, which is this – each of the players I have listed, to different degrees, have had excellent moments this season, and I value every single one of them as a crucial part of this Arsenal team. But sometimes, players have poor games, and chances are, they are honest enough about it to admit when they do, and don’t seek to blame less culpable members of the team. So why do we?

Ramsey didn’t set the world alight in either game, but he did ok for me, particularly against Chelsea. We praise Rosicky for his endless running, yet conveniently ignore that Ramsey does the same thing. He is frequently compared to Denilson, which is among the worst links I’ve ever known. Denilson’s problems were two-fold – he didn’t try to create much, preferring the safe options, and he didn’t work hard enough to win the ball back when we lost it. Ramsey cannot be accused of either. He loses the ball precisely because he tries things, and he works his bollocks off trying to regain possession, particularly after his own mistakes. On Saturday, he copped abuse when he lost the ball to a man he never saw, and never got a shout about. Surely we should be criticising the lack of communication from his teammates?

I’m not saying Ramsey is on form. He isn’t. But when a player is off colour, all we ask is that he works hard to get himself back to previous heights, something that Arshavin, Denilson, Chamakh and others have failed to do. So why, when a player shows us the desire we’ve been crying out for, do we vilify him anyway?

When I hear the groans from the stands, when I hear the disgusting abuse some of these guys face from a minority of their own supporters, I find myself fearing what we could lose. We have some precocious talents at the club that have everything they need to have tremendous futures. I just hope they want to have that future with us. Sometimes, I wonder why they would.

Sometimes the scoreline doesn’t even close to telling the full story. It looks like we pinched a tight game in the latter stages, but in reality this was one of the best and most passionate performances we’ve seen from Arsenal in recent years. From the first minute we were first to everything, running City ragged down both flanks with a series of incisive moves, only to be denied by last ditch defending (usually from the excellent Kompany), the occasional poor decision with the final ball, and on a couple of occasions, the frame of the goal.

Before each of those instances, however, we contrived to do our own goalline defending for City – Van Persie’s goalbound header striking the back of Vermaelen before bouncing up on to the crossbar and away. Remarkably enough, it wasn’t to be the closest we got to scoring without actually putting the ball in the net – that was reserved for a second half moment where Walcott’s shot was pushed on to the post by Hart, Vermaelen slipped and sliced his tap in, but the ball still fell to Benayoun two yards out, only for his shot to deflect off Lescott, then the other post, before going behind for a corner. It was a proper jaw drop moment.

Earlier in the second half, Van Persie had already struck the woodwork, heading another delicious Song chipped pass on to the base of the post, and with Kompany snuffing out the rest of our chances, the game was heading for the most unfortunate of nil-nils, until Arteta snapped into yet another tackle in the centre of the park, advanced with more purpose than any of the City defenders coming to meet him, and slammed a fierce drive beyond Hart’s despairing hand with minutes to go. Joy unconfined.

To say that we deserved it would be a massive understatement. City looked flattened by United’s earlier win, and came into the game with body language that betrayed their inner admission that the title had already gone. We were winning the battles all over the park, and in the first half an hour in particular were showing City exactly why we’d let Clichy move to them – Walcott and Sagna were tearing him apart. All that was missing was the goal, but no player could be faulted in their application or quality – we were far superior in every department, and 3-0 or 4-0 would not have been flattering.

In the end, it was a victory for a team that fought for each other, against a team that fought each other. I’ll come to Balotelli in a moment, because there are some important things to touch on there, but City showed a clear division between members of the defence (Hart, Kompany, Lescott) who were desperate to win, and the creative players (Nasri, Balotelli, Aguero) who offered nothing positive to justify their enormous salaries and apparently lofty ambitions.

By contrast, we were fighting for each other, covering the spaces brilliantly, with Koscielny and Song particularly imperious once again. Koscielny will miss two games after picking up his tenth booking of the season, but that really was the only downside of the day.

However, we are enormously lucky that Koscielny’s suspension was the worst moment. Thanks to the sustained idiocy of Mario Balotelli, we could easily have seen a repeat of Diaby/Eduardo/Ramsey, and the permanent damaging of a player’s career. From the word go, the Italian was petulant both in his approach to the game and his attitude to his teammates, who never hid their frustration with him. But the worst aspect was his tackling, if you can even call it that.

Alex Song is lucky that his leg is still in one piece after Balotelli thundered into a studs up challenge at knee height, sending him spinning away in agony. Had Song’s leg been planted, it would have snapped like a twig. Incredibly, the officials missed it, and although Martin Atkinson can claim a poor view, the linesman was unobstructed just ten yards away. It was the clearest of red cards, and he can certainly expect a call from the FA (which would result in five games being added to his ban for the red card he later received, thanks to a series of previous violent conduct suspensions). That Song got up was an enormous relief – on another day we could easily have been analysing another shattered leg and wrecked career.

It makes me angry that we let players get to this stage. Balotelli is set up to be the pantomime villain, but there is nothing remotely funny about him. He is an idiot, plain and simple, an immature child who throws his toys out of the pram when things don’t go his way, and as shown today can put the careers of his fellow professionals at risk without concern. Despite getting away with his shocking challenge on Song, he went into three more awful challenges on Sagna, the second and third of which saw him pick up yellow cards, yet he still had the temerity to show incredulity at the decision to dismiss him in the final moments of the game.

He was a disgrace throughout the match, and his teammates knew it. Joe Hart was shown calling him unspeakable names that I’m sure he followed up in the dressing room, but while the press laud him for being so entertaining, he will continue to relish the spotlight, and will maintain his crazy antics until someone gets seriously hurt. Then, of course, those who have delighted in giving him the headlines he craves will protest their innocence and condemn.

He should never have been allowed to get to this point. He is, put simply, a tool and a liability, and showed today that he has little regard for his fellow professionals, whether they are on his team or not. Today is one of the reasons I don’t believe a ‘ban a player as long as their victim is out‘ rule works – yes, it would mean Shawcross etc would have been suspended for a long time, but equally Balotelli would get away unscathed. Personally, I advocate simply slapping players who commit these atrocious challenges with enormous bans, irrespective of the damage they cause. Why wait for a broken leg first?

And what of the officials? As a team, they put the players at risk today by allowing Balotelli to stay on the field (a charge that can also be levelled at Mancini for not withdrawing him). Had Sagna been hurt by any of Balotelli’s subsequent X-rated lunges, they would have been equally culpable.

I’m just relieved that Song and Sagna got up each time, and we don’t have that situation. I hope Balotelli gets the book thrown at him, but I still don’t believe his inevitable suspension will sufficiently match the crime.

But enough about one of the biggest idiots in our game today – back to us, and a display of unity and team spirit that anyone will find difficult to match. There are now combinations all over the field clicking together – the midfield trio of Arteta, Song and Rosicky (who was again outstanding) are intertwining superbly, while the back five are becoming increasingly difficult to breach. It seems to have gone unnoticed that our form is still excellent despite Van Persie’s mini goal drought, and while there have been moments in the season where we were a little reliant on him, the team as a whole have really stepped up of late.

How crucial today could be. Enjoy your evening. Unless you are Mario Balotelli. Or Samir Nasri. Or….

But on occasion, football as a sport can unite the fiercest of opponents, and bring out the absolute best in everyone. Today was one such day.

Shortly before half time in the FA Cup tie between Spurs and Bolton, Fabrice Muamba collapsed with no-one else near him. Always a worrying sign in itself, the obvious distress on the faces of both sets of players quickly made the situation clear – Muamba was in serious trouble. Both sets of fans stood in respectful and worried silence, punctuated by the odd song of support for the stricken young man now fighting for his life before their eyes. After what seemed an age, he was finally stretchered off the field to heartfelt applause, and with none of the players in any state to continue, the match was rightfully abandoned.

As I write this, the news is tentatively good, and is that Muamba is stable (but still critically ill) in hospital, which is remarkable, frankly. I hope that as the hours roll by, the news continues to be positive, and he can make a full and speedy recovery.

But the point of this post wasn’t to tell you what you undoubtedly already know – even if you weren’t watching the game I have no doubt that you have since been made aware of the situation. The point of the post was to bring attention to the incredible unity that so many believe football incapable of.

On the field, players who had been tearing into each other just minutes before were embracing, supporting each other, no matter the shirt they were wearing or the issues any of them had with each other. At that moment, they were just men scared for the safety of a stricken colleague.

Off the field, the Bolton fans sung his name with gusto, and the Spurs fans ignored the fact that Muamba was not only an opponent, but an Arsenal product, and joined in with equal volume and passion. Every single person that sung his name deserves immense credit for showing the sort of humanity and care that counters the belief that the sport is bereft of it.

But finally, and most importantly, the medical staff who tended to him on the field, who did everything they could to resuscitate him in those immediate and crucial moments, who treated him on the way to, and at the hospital – they are the real heroes. They may have saved the life of a 23 year old who has already been through more strife in his tender years than most of us could even imagine, and who is now a doting father. We look up to some strange people – celebrities, musicians, even footballers – but these people are genuinely deserving.

Thanks to them, Muamba still has a fighting chance, and for that everyone should be enormously grateful and relieved.

Get well soon, Fabrice.

We wanted fight, we wanted pride, we wanted to at least give Milan a scare. I suspect even those suggesting a remarkable comeback had parts of their tongue in their cheek. But what seemed a dead rubber ended up being a spectacle that reunited players with disillusioned fans, and despite not being enough to progress to the quarter finals demonstrated many of the qualities so valued (and missed) in recent years. Speed, precision, bravery and a refusal to give up were all in evidence, and as the players battled, the crowd roared their approval. For ninety minutes, there was no criticism, no exasperated sighs, just sheer unadulterated support for a set of footballers willing to leave every ounce they had on the lush green grass of the Grove.

Ultimately, it wasn’t enough to overturn the horrors of the first leg, but it may yet prove a pivotal night in the careers of many – players and manager alike. Maybe it will turn into another false dawn, or maybe it could be the night when everyone got back on the same page, put aside their differences and grievances and noted that we are us, they are them, and they will forever be the enemy.

The last ten days have been remarkable. Two goals down to Spurs and a mutiny was on the cards, yet three enormously impressive wins (all for different reasons) have given us all the momentum. We are the ones raising our game as the others slip under pressure. There have been some miraculous individual performances, some from unexpected sources – Rosicky proved last night that his superb display against Spurs was not a one-off, while young Oxlade-Chamberlain is proving too good to ease into the team at the rate Wenger would have undoubtedly wished. As for the main man up front? Four more goals in those three victories, it is also his captaincy that is impressing – under his leadership the team seems more united that any we’ve seen since the middle of last decade. Long may it continue.

What made the victories so impressive is that in each of our last three games, I feel we’ve had comfortably the worst of the officiating. But on all three occasions, we have triumphed, and for those who say that last night was not a success, I would strongly disagree. We just beat the current Serie A leaders and in-form team, and we beat them well.

I’m not going to go into a detailed match report – you all watched it after all. Suffice to say that the very fact we had our hopes raised so high by half time was evidence enough that this Arsenal team is capable of really pushing on. And push on we must – a run of performances like that and third is ours for the taking. With it comes the guarantee of Champions League football without a pesky qualifier in August, and means we can plan for the season ahead knowing exactly where we stand. And of course, it enables us to celebrate the annual St. Totteringham’s Day gigglethon.

Last night made many proud. It made me proud. I envy those that were there, but also tip my hat to everyone who went along and sung at the top of their lungs, helping the players nearly achieve the seemingly impossible. You were awesome.

We’ll be back. In the meantime, Spurs, we’re coming to get you.

What a week it has been. After half an hour of last weekend’s North London derby, it appeared that the gap between us and Spurs would increase to a mammoth and surely unassailable thirteen points, with Chelsea and Liverpool taking over as favourites to pip us for fourth. Just six days later, the gap between us and our increasingly nervous neighbours is down to four, while we lead a dispirited Chelsea by three and Liverpool by ten. And it has been achieved in the most extraordinary fashion.

Much of Arsenal’s display today was actually pretty ordinary. Liverpool had plenty of the ball, countless excellent positions and a verve in the tackle. We had less of all of those, but we did have a critical factor – sheer quality at both ends of the pitch. In recent times, Liverpool have created much but converted little, and it was easy to see why when you watched them close up for ninety minutes. By contrast, we had Robin van Persie, who barely seemed to touch the ball all day, but buried his only two chances emphatically. And the same sense of opposite could be said of the respective goalkeepers – Szczesny was formidable, keeping us in the game, while Reina will be disappointed with the goal that ultimately decided it.

Szczesny had already come off his line to mop up a dangerous through ball when he became the hero in one of the game’s major talking points. Suarez exchanged passes with Kuyt before going to ground over the keeper’s challenge, and Mark Halsey pointed to the spot, a decision that was proven to be a complete guess when you saw the view (or lack of) that he had. Actually, saying Suarez went to ground is a slight morphing of the truth – the reality is that he did a double twist worthy of an Olympic gymnast before screaming in apparent and unwarranted agony.

Countless replays eventually showed that if there was any contact, it was a slight brushing of shins after the keeper’s challenge had been withdrawn. Sky, in their infinite wisdom, displayed a freeze frame graphic of the moment, with Jamie Redknapp claiming it as conclusive proof that the penalty was the correct decision. Oddly enough, they didn’t mention the fact that Suarez was already halfway through his melodramatic pirouette by that point. No matter whether there was contact of any sort, this was simulation at its most embarrassing.

What followed was remarkable – Kuyt’s weak penalty was well saved by Szczesny, but with the ball dropping back to the Dutchman, a goal looked a formality. Somehow though, the young Pole got up, flung himself across the goal again and palmed the ball to safety – it was a remarkable and inspirational display of agility.

Minutes later, he was beaten by the unfortunate Laurent Koscielny, whose attempted clearance sliced into the corner. But again, the young keeper showed a determination that endears him to all of us, dragging the distraught Koscielny back to his feet and getting him back in the game. Future captain material, perhaps.

The lead did not last long. We had barely had a sniff of the Liverpool goal before we did to them what so many have done to us in the past – score with our first chance. Sagna was afforded plenty of time out on the right, Liverpool perhaps confident that he could not find the killer cross. Unfortunately for them, he could, and Van Persie stole ahead of the lethargic Carragher to power home an equalising header. It was against the run of play, certainly, and we could easily have gone into the break behind again, with Suarez and Kuyt both hitting the post.

But this is exactly where Liverpool’s problem lies. Many will say they were unlucky not to score more, but I don’t buy it, and neither will many Arsenal fans who have witnessed similar struggles in our own team over recent years (particularly when van Persie has been out injured). How many times have we been denied by a stunning display from the opposition keeper? And how many times have we missed a hatful of chances and gone home feeling hard done by?

It is not bad luck. Keepers have fantastic games when you allow them to – clinical strikers don’t give them a chance. Szczesny’s double save from the spot kick was incredible, but a top striker would have struck the rebound cleanly and scored. Kuyt hitting the post was unfortunate, but not Suarez – he had plenty of the goal to aim at and it was no more difficult than rounding a keeper and scoring from an angle. You expect a goal from a player of his calibre, and hitting the post was not unlucky, it was a poor finish.

These were just two of a number of occasions where Liverpool could and perhaps should have scored. Henderson, who looked out of his depth throughout, wasted two glorious positions in the first half, and the worst came just after half time, when a chipped ball over the top found Downing sprinting beyond our back four, with Suarez alert enough to make a run in the centre. All Downing had to do was square it for a tap in, but he took an extra touch and then passed it far too close to Szczesny, who gathered. It was these instances that cost them, and makes the inevitable Match of the Day ‘unlucky’ claim a nonsense. They weren’t unlucky, they were wasteful. Replace Downing and Henderson with players that are actually worth the amount of money Liverpool paid for them, and they win that game. It says everything about Downing that you cannot see him putting in the terrific cross Sagna managed, despite that sole act being what he was purchased (expensively) to do.

Liverpool continued to waste positions, Van Persie continued to lurk threateningly at the other end, a constant reminder that we would not need the same number of chances to win the game. And in the second of eight injury time minutes caused by Arteta’s Henderson-induced concussion, we struck the killer blow. Song, as he has done so often this season, chipped a glorious through ball to Van Persie, who had stolen a few yards of space. There are very few players who could do what he did next, but after managing it at Everton already this season, our hopes were raised for the unthinkable. He duly obliged – as the ball dropped over his shoulder, he sidefooted a stunning volley past Reina (who should have done better) and the game was won. Liverpool knew it, and even the recent memory of coming back in injury time again us, there was to be no repeat.

After the game, the main man handed his champagne to Szczesny for keeping us in the game, just as he had given his North London derby prize to Theo Walcott the week before. Not captain material? My arse.

Sky chose not to analyse his brilliance, but instead his contract situation, with Jamie Redknapp again making a fool out of himself by declaring it to be all about the money. It isn’t, and it never has been, and frankly, we can all stop talking about it until the summer, where it will all be decided. Right now, he is showing as much passion for the club as anyone, and that is all I care about. Unlike our broadcasters, I prefer to focus on the actual football. Novel, I know.

It has been quite the week. Chelsea’s loss made the day even sweeter, and it remains to be seen what effect it will have if they remove Villas-Boas, as they surely will. Tomorrow we will be hoping for favours from United, who can keep Spurs within reach for us. But today was a victory for a wonderful triumvirate – a terrific young goalkeeper, a lethal striker, and the same opponent-bitchslapping karma that Gareth Bale suffered last week for his own pathetic dive.

Just as last week, we can walk into work on Monday with a grin that gives away just how much we can enjoy the day. And we will.

There is a theory among many that finishing fourth is something of a holy grail. It brings riches, glorious nights against top European opposition, credibility in the football world and excitement for fans. And this is true, to an extent. It does bring all of those things.

Potentially.

What is actually brings is a qualifying round in August, which the new format of the Champions League guarantees is anything but straightforward. Udinese could have knocked us out six months ago, and sent us even further into a downward spin than we were already headed after our horrendous start to the season. But the issues with finishing fourth run deeper than that.

Last week, we heard a lot about Arsenal’s finances, about how our ‘cash in hand’ is tied inextricably to Champions League revenue, and looking back, August held plenty of evidence to back that up. A dearth of signings for months despite a threadbare squad meant that we went into the season not so much on the back foot, but on the hurtling backward trajectory of a bungee run. Only when Champions League qualification was assured did we make our last minute purchases.

I am concerned that finishing fourth could see us witness a repeat. If you finish outside the top four, you know that you are taking a significant financial hit, but at the same time you know where you stand in May. Right from the start of the summer you can plan for a restructure based on your new financial strength (or lack of), and aim to break back into the elusive quartet. Even better, finishing third means that all that lovely money is guaranteed, and you can again plan for the season ahead as soon as the last ball is kicked.

Finishing fourth is different – it leaves you with a difficult choice. You can either plan based on the assumption of losing the qualifying round, and treat qualification as a fantastic bonus, or you can gamble on saving your pennies until the matches are safely negotiated, and hope there is still time to conduct the necessary business thereafter. For me, we took that gamble last year and lost, despite knocking Udinese out. Primary targets were missed, and more crucially our season didn’t start until September, by which time the crisis talk had already begun. It is a mistake we would be wise not to make again.

Of course, ideally we would break the top three, which is where tomorrow’s game comes in. Anything less than a win and I think we can kiss St Totteringham’s Day goodbye for 2012, along with hopes of avoiding a nervy banana skin as our season opens. And I have to admit, part of me wonders if Tim Stillman, in his column for Arseblog, has a point when musing how much of a disaster finishing fifth would really be, if third became unattainable. Next season would certainly feel fresh, even if you could claim that is for entirely the wrong reasons.

Even putting all that aside, tomorrow’s game is huge. We owe Spurs for a few matches in recent years, and we certainly need to break our habit of throwing away two goal leads against them. Bizarrely enough, I’m rampantly optimistic about the game for a reason I cannot put my finger on – perhaps it is the sense that these players would love to stick fingers up at everyone who ever doubted them, perhaps it is the sense that the Spurs bubble is due to wane is the dismal way a deflating, twitching balloon does, or perhaps it is pure blind optimism. I’ve already put a punt on a 4-1 win. Yes, really.

Because imagine if we do win. Our worst season in recent memory coincides with their best, and we still have a chance to catch them? North London is ours, fellas. Always will be.

Enjoy the game.

“Arsenal have the fourth biggest wage bill in the Premiership, therefore should be finishing fourth.”

“But we also have a lower net spend on transfers over the past six years than the vast majority of the league. Surely in those terms, anything above 17th is overachieving?”

“No, it doesn’t work like that. It is all about the wage bill. And ours is huge.”

I’m guessing this argument isn’t new to you. The strange thing about it is that, like many other debates in the Arsenal world, it is entirely polarising – most people seem to sit firmly in the ‘our net spend is tiny, therefore Wenger is working miracles‘ or ‘our wage bill is way higher than Spurs, therefore we’re underachieving‘ camp. I know I talk a lot on this blog about middle ground, but it amazes me that it is isn’t found on this one. After all, net spend and wages are the two ways of spending your money. They both count.

Not only do they both count, but they are intrinsically and inextricably linked. Over the past decade in particular, Arsenal have had a very clear strategy when it comes to replacing players – promote from within wherever possible, and recruit from outside when there is no-one of sufficient standing to elevate. That has had two direct results:

• a focus on investing in the reserves and youths, paying the promising youngsters a salary designed to keep them out of the clutches of our rivals. End result – a higher wage bill, because we have a larger collection of players in development, each on decent money.
• a higher proportion of departing players replaced from within. End result – a reduced net transfer spend, because incoming fees are not always spent on replacements.

We have a higher wage spend so that we can reduce our transfer spend – they are fundamentally intertwined, and it makes no sense to consider one without the other. You cannot say we are working miracles because our transfer spend is so low without acknowledging that it is our wage bill enabling that, and likewise you cannot judge us against expectations set purely by our wage bill when a considerable chunk of that is not being paid to players who will affect the club this season (it is also true that some of our wage bill is reserved for players not necessarily worthy of their salaries, but you can find examples of that at every club).

There are advantages and disadvantages to the strategy. Promoting from within leaves you less exposed to being ripped off when your rivals know of your desperate need for a player in a certain position (otherwise known as the Andy Carroll effect), and it also means that by the time a player hits the first team, they have already been schooled in the Arsenal way and are settled within the club. You could also argue that players require less gelling with each other than new arrivals, since many of them will have played together at youth or reserve level.

On the flip side, some of the money invested in youngsters is ultimately wasted when they do not come to fruition. Arsenal have historically been very clever with sell on clauses for players they let go, but sometimes three or four years (sometimes more) are invested in a talent who ultimately leaves for nothing before reaching the first team squad. Not only that, but having a young talent pool at your disposal can tempt the manager into promoting too early – if he needs to fill a particular berth in the squad, and has a great talent coming through the ranks, he may take a gamble on a player a year or two before the ideal moment. We’ve seen it happen.

So there are pros and cons, good elements and bad elements to the approach, but it annoys me when people fail to acknowledge what we have tried to do, and point either to the wage bill or transfer spend in complete isolation, and using it as evidence of our over- or underachievement. One affects the other directly.

The other related point is the 71 man playing staff figure that came out this week. It is hardly news – if you go to the dot com and count up the first team squad and reserves, you’ll reach a total of 72 (I assume Benayoun is the additional one, since he isn’t actually ours), so it isn’t as if the club are hiding anything. But this ties in with our strategy once again – if you plan to promote from within wherever you can, you need a decent pool from which to select. Some players are patently a few years from fruition, but they increase the wage bill and player count to the point where people can criticise. For the record, most other top clubs have 55-70, so we aren’t enormously inflated.

Imagine if we changed our strategy tomorrow, let as many of the youngsters go as we could, and recruited purely (or mainly) through the transfer market. In the short term, our wage bill would drop considerably, and the club balance sheet would look healthier. But, a few years down the line, three players might leave at the end of their contracts, with another two sold, and we would have to recruit five players from the market. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the wages saved are then used to funds the transfers (and associated fees).

Essentially, the club’s plan is to invest in youth, and cash in on that investment by banking a transfer fee for an outgoing player without necessarily having to fritter it away on a replacement. It is a strategy that confuses the media, who believe that every sale should result in a like for like purchase, and it frustrates fans, who don’t see as much spending action going on during a transfer window (incidentally, I am not saying we don’t need to purchase, the strategy is to promote from within where you can, it certainly doesn’t preclude signings when you don’t have someone good enough and ready).

So next time you hear two people debating over whether our expectations should be driven by our net spend or our wage bill, bang their heads together, tell them they are both right and end this most frustrating of cyclical arguments.

But sometimes, you have to call a spade a spade. Wednesday night was an absolute shambles, with the worrying combination of an apparent lack of drive, and an inability to do any of the basics, ensuring that we had absolutely no chance against a Milan side who, while perfectly capable, were not as good as we made them look. From back to front we were beyond ordinary – simple passes cut us apart, while our own simple passes went astray.

But most worrying of all were the lack of excuses available for the defeat. We aren’t riddled with injuries, we weren’t tired coming into the game, and while their penalty was soft, our heavy defeat was not the fault of the officials. So it was no surprise to hear that Wenger, who puts an enormous amount of trust in the players, tore into them at training the next day. The press claim that as another sign of crisis – personally I like hearing it. That Wenger is so angry means that he still has the drive himself, the question is whether he can instill that in the players again.

Which brings us to this afternoon. In an hour or so, we kick off a tricky cup tie away at Sunderland. We won there last weekend in the league, but it required a late winner from a certain Frenchman who is no longer with us, after a week in which Sunderland were taken to extra time by Middlesbrough. This time round, we are the ones with the heavy legs, while they have enjoyed a week off. It will be tougher.

I don’t care if we play poorly again today, I really don’t. The only thing I care about is that the players have the same on-pitch reaction that Wenger had on the training ground on Thursday. If they do, the result could follow – if they don’t, we will surely lose to a well drilled Sunderland side on a pitch that has already claimed Mertesacker as a victim (quite how a Premiership club can even be allowed to have such dangerous playing conditions is another question entirely).

And if we look disinterested again today, in the one competition we still stand a chance of winning, then very serious questions need to be asked, from top to bottom. It will start with the players, of which there should (and I suspect will) be quite the overhaul this summer, but Wenger also has to answer plenty, given that the squad is entirely his to answer for.

A win would be a wonderful fillip. United and City are out, while Chelsea added to their congested fixture list by drawing at home to Birmingham at lunchtime. The FA Cup is really opening up, and with the exit to Milan now inevitable, our eased schedule means that we have as good a chance as any to lift the trophy in May. A draw is far from ideal, because it places a replay on Tuesday night, just days before the most important North London derby in years. Lose, and the reaction will be vicious.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. I love the FA Cup and want this particular journey to continue, and as a club it feels like we need it to continue to reverse the negativity that is only ever one bad result away.

Enjoy the game.

• League – 4th. Two Manchester clubs to fight it out for the title, Spurs third. We squeeze out Chelsea for the final Champions League spot.
• Knocked out of the Champions League by AC Milan. Have a bad feeling about this tie.
• Win the FA Cup.

The final element of that was partially driven by the draws – I made the prediction shortly after Liverpool and United had been paired together in the fourth round. With City already out, it is certainly a competition that has opened up, although Sunderland away on Saturday will be a big test, particularly coming off the back of a trip to the San Siro. We struggled to beat them last weekend with us being the more rested side – the role reversal will make things tricky, to say the least.

As for the league, I’ve always felt that we could claim fourth spot, despite our failings. Fans tend to have a bit of a mistaken view of what is required to come fourth, insisting that our flaws will prevent us. But what of Chelsea’s many flaws? Or Liverpool’s? The fact is – none of us seem capable of consistency, and all will lose more games between now and the end of the season. Yet one troubled team will finish fourth – I see no reason why it cannot be us.

The weekend certainly helped – Henry’s dramatic, emotional and perfectly scripted winner at Sunderland lifted us quietly back into fourth while Chelsea, Liverpool and Newcastle all suffered painful defeats. I said it last week, but we are at our best when out of the spotlight, and the lunchtime game between Liverpool and United ensured that would be the case. We duly delivered.

That was, of course, Henry’s final Premiership game for us, assuming this is the one and only time he is brought in on loan. I will freely admit that I had my doubts whether his arrival would actually help us, or whether he would end us being largely peripheral, but he has been a superb influence throughout. Not only did his winners against Leeds and Sunderland give us two of the biggest feelgood moments of the season, but he has reminded us of his class on and off the pitch – he speaks as a fan, plays as a fan, and celebrates as if every goal is his first, and best. Of course, his departure exposes Chamakh and Park even more – that they were so obviously behind him in the pecking order says everything about their status within the club, but there is little we can do about that now, bar wishing Van Persie the very very best of health.

All of that leaves us with the less optimistic of my trio of predictions – that we will lose to Milan. I’ll be honest – I’ve had a bad feeling about this tie from the moment it was drawn. We have a great recent record against Italian sides, but they are on a roll at present, and went top of Serie A at the weekend. They seem to have put their early season defensive issues behind them, and are scoring at will – typically Italian they certainly are not. Frankly, how any dressing room containing the combined egos of Cassano, Ibrahimovic, Pato and Robinho has yet to implode is a mystery, but they are managing it, all while playing a brand of football that will seriously test us tomorrow night. With the likelihood of goals, it is imperative we get on the scoresheet ourselves to protect ourselves from away goals in the second leg.

The team is likely to be very similar to Saturday, except for Per Mertesacker, whose ankle injury could well end his season. There is no official word on the extent of the damage as yet, but I don’t think any of us would be surprised if it turned out to be a very bad one. It certainly looked that way. Gibbs, at the last count, was fit again, so we still have three available centre halves, with Vermaelen perhaps able to step away from the left back berth at last.

Much relies on the front three. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arshavin start ahead of the Ox, preserving the youngster’s legs for later in the game, and we need a good game from the Russian if he is sent out there. Likewise Theo, who does have an excellent record in the Champions League, and scared the living daylights out of Milan in the San Siro last time we were there. They will not have forgotten.

And then, of course, there is one Thierry Henry, who is likely to feature for twenty minutes or so. Would you bet against him?