This time tomorrow, the World Cup will have kicked off, and I, along with many others, will be spicing up the matches with a bet or two. Historically, I’ve always done quite well with the World Cup by following some golden rules, which are as follows:

• Bet on African and Asian nations to do well. They are always underestimated.
• There is more to South America than Brazil and Argentina.
• Never ever ever ever ever ever ever bet on England to do well.

That these rules stand you in good stead is no fault of the bookies – it is supply and demand. Pick anyone in the street and ask them who will have a good World Cup, and you’ll never hear an answer outside the top European nations, Brazil and Argentina. I’m not saying an African side will lift the trophy, but sometimes you can get extremely generous odds on them just escaping the group stage.

The more observant among you may have noticed the betting tracker on the right hand side of the screen, which will list each of the bets throughout the course of the competition, with recent wins and losses displayed alongside all remaining open bets. There is also a Twitter hashtag against which they will be listed - #groanswcbets – you can search for them using this link. If you are a Twitter user, feel free to add your comments or suggested bets – if you add the hashtag to the tweet it will appear in the search. If Twitter is not your thing, you can always comment on this post instead.

So, without further ado, here are the first ten tips (and yes, I am staking my own money on these). All the bets are placed with Sportingbet, as they do excellent odds and a very wide range of bets.

1. Holland the win the World Cup – 9/1

Might as well start with the big one. The Dutch are a mercurial nation – talented, yet like Spain prior to 2008, they inexplicably fail in major tournaments. But they seem more united than usual this year, and have the talent to go all the way. A look at their squad makes it mystifying that no-one is tipping them to lift the trophy, as they are unlikely to face a major challenge until the quarter finals – an easy group should be followed by whichever of New Zealand, Paraguay and Slovakia accompanies Italy into the knockout stages. Their only potential problem is one familiar to English fans – the prospect of penalties (they are the only nation with a worse record).

2. Luis Fabiano to be top scorer – 11/1

The Brazilian striker is a bit special – 25 goals in 38 international appearances, 90 in 152 for Sevilla. Top scorer in the Confederations Cup last year, he is proven at all levels, and with Brazil playing North Korea intheir opening match, he has a great chance to get off to a flyer. The bookies may favour either of the Spanish pairing, or Lionel Messi (who has a poor record for his country), but Fabiano is my pick.

3. South Africa to qualify from their group – 7/4

Host nations never go out in the group stage. In 2002, the world was convinced that the statistic would change, but both Japan and South Korea confounded their critics, and South Africa are likely to do the same. France are exceptionally wobbly, Mexico hit and miss and Uruguay poor outside South America. The odds on the host nation progressing are exceptionally generous.

4. North Korea to score at least twice in the tournament – 11/8

Yes, they are in a tough group, and yes, they are the lowest ranked team in the tournament, but an impressive qualifying campaign suggests that North Korea are better than the whipping boy status they have been given. Scoring twice in three games is a perfectly reasonable ask, especially given that Brazil and the Ivory Coast are not known for keeping clean sheets.

5. France to go out in the group stage – 15/8

Blessed with a terrific set of players, the French squad is nonetheless an uneasy place. A loss to China last week, questions over team selection (although reports of infighting are exaggerated), and the second barmiest manager at the tournament (behind Maradona) is not a recipe for success. The bookies tip them to qualify with Mexico, but as I said earlier, the hosts cannot be discounted, and Uruguay famously denied them eight years ago. France could be the big casualty of the group stage.

6. Chile to get 4-5 points – 11/5

Group H should be hard fought. Spain are the clear favourites, while Honduras look set for disappointment, but Switzerland and Chile will be fighting for qualification. Assuming Chile beat Honduras, a couple of tight draws would leave them on five points, and even a loss to Spain drops them to four. Either is very possible, and as a result these odds seem very generous.

7. Serbia to win Group D – 11/4

Germany’s presence in the group automatically puts them as favourites to progress in top spot, but Serbia were also underdogs in their qualifying campaign, where they forced France into that playoff with a string of impressive performances. Now ranked 15th in the world, they are a close-knit squad that are undoubtedly my dark horses.

8. South Africa v Mexico to finish 1-1 – 5/1

Moving on to the individual matches, and I’m tipping a stalemate in the opening game, but not a goalless one. Both sides carry a threat going forward, but are vulnerable at the back, and if the score is level going into the last ten minutes, both may settle for not losing their first match.

9. France v Uruguay to be heavy on the cards – 8/5

These two have history. Eight years ago Henry was sent off when the teams met in a crucial match that eventually helped eliminate France, then holders. These days, Uruguay rely on Forlan and Suarez up front, but behind them is a bruising team full of players sure to catch the eye of the referee, while France themselves are known to get riled a little easily. The referee for the match is Japan’s Yuichi Nishimura, who can be card-happy, and so the odds on more than sixty points (ten for a yellow, twenty five for a second yellow or a straight red) looks a great prospect.

10. England and USA to draw – 14/5

Four times in the last twenty years, England have drawn their opening match of a major tournament, and with USA favourites to join them in the knockout stages, a repeat would not be the disgrace the media would likely label it. With Algeria and Slovenia to come, a point for each side would be a reasonable start, and as ever, betting against England carries fantastic odds.

And there you have it. There will be plenty more bets to come as the tournament progresses, but these ten all strike me as potential winners. You can keep up to date with the successes and failures of these tips and those that follow by watching the tracker to the right. Enjoy!

One day to go. I’m excited. Are you?

Two days until the World Cup starts, and given that the tournament usually spells the end of any transfer action for a month, we have just enough time to assess the status of each of the current sagas.

Cesc Fabregas

blah blah…Xavi …blah blah… Barca DNA …blah blah… not for sale …blah blah… certain to sign …blah blah… tappy tappy …blah blah… desperate president making final plea …blah blah… sound of a door being slammed shut.

Nothing new here – Barcelona are still confident of signing our captain, we say he isn’t for sale, they claim we’re still in negotiations while blatantly tapping him up in public. This will not go away, but equally nothing will happen while the World Cup is on.

Joe Cole

Chelsea have finally confirmed that Cole will leave the club when his contract expires at the end of the month. The player is rightly refusing to comment. The press are convinced we’re signing him, or that he’s off to Spurs, but every source I have is convinced he will join United, and I have no reason to doubt them.

Laurent Koscielny

One of those players who will be copy-pasted into every article I ever write about him has apparently been subject to an £8m bid from us. The Lorient defender is highly rated, but none of the stories surrounding him come with quotes from us, him, or his current club, which either means the rumour is garbage, or that we’ve finally found another club that likes to do business as quietly as we do. At least it beats seeing Hangeland tipped to join us every day.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one come off – he’s 24, which is about the right age for a centre back needing to step straight into the first team squad, we hadn’t heard of him before this summer, and we are in dire need of centre halves. There may be too much smoke for this one to be completely false.

Phillippe Senderos

At last, something concrete - Senderos’ long and sometimes painful career at Arsenal has come to an end, as the 25 year old has joined Fulham on a free transfer. I know I’m not alone in feeling a bit sad about this – Senderos was such a bright prospect in his early years, but some high profile mistakes and Wenger’s sometimes rough treatment of him (axing him for Gallas, ruthlessly ousting him for mistakes) made his departure inevitable.

I can’t help but feel Fulham have gotten a fantastic bargain here – Senderos was always at his best when playing regularly, and he’ll get that under the watchful eye of Roy Hodgson, a master at lifting the spirits of any player under his tutelage. Just 25, the Swiss’ best years are ahead of him, and it is a shame he will be spending them elsewhere. Much as I hope we don’t look back at what might have been, I genuinely wish him all the best - he deserves a bright few years, and it is hard to resentsuch a likeable club benefitting from the re-ignition of his career.

And that is about it. Look out for some World Cup features over the coming days – I make no apologies for loving the showpiece tournament as much as I passionately dislike international friendlies during the season. And besides, if I relied on Arsenal news over the next month, you might get a post once a week at best.

Stay tuned.

After the unequivocal rejection of Barcelona’s opening Cesc bid, there was widespread pride at how forcefully we were dealing with a club that had treated us as if we were an unimportant third party. But even as the words ‘will not enter into any discussion’ were uttered, there was also acceptance that the Spaniards would not go away.

That we hold the cards in this affair is undeniable, but equally important to note is how desperate Laporta is to land his man before stepping down as Barcelona president. If he fails, it will be a major blight on his reign, at least in his own mind. Theoretically, his obsession is good news for us, because such a man is easy to extract an overblown price from, but with their financial situation far from healthy, his willingness to spend lavish sums is restricted by reality.

With the realisation that the money on the table will not be enough, coupled with the knowledge that they cannot afford to raise the stakes much higher, Laporta is becoming desperate, as shown by his latest comments:

“It’s a price that we consider to be his market value. Arsenal have rejected it. We have to do everything we can to convince them that the best thing for all is to reach an agreement”

“The club have full confidence that Arsenal will end up understanding the situation”

We have full confidence that Arsenal we end up understanding the situation? Thanks Joan, but we actually understand the situation quite well. You want a player who is tied into a long term contract, and isn’t the sort of player to put in a formal transfer request or agitate for a move. Therefore, you must pay us what we believe to be market value. What you consider to be a fair price is completely and utterly irrelevant.

The thing that gets me is this – up to this point all of Barca’s actions have had a carefully constructed ulterior motive. The words of the players and the staff have been aimed at doing two things: a) driving a wedge between Cesc and Arsenal and b) driving a wedge between the fans and Cesc.

Neither tactic is working. Cesc has handed control to the club, and by doing so has confirmed himself as the man of class we all believed him to be. He is still our captain, and we still want him to stay. Furthermore, if Barcelona fail to come up with the money being demanded, that is exactly what will happen. Everyone knows it.

So what exactly is the point of these comments? Does Laporta expect us to turn around and say “Oh, I see, we didn’t realise you wanted him so badly. Since you can’t afford the price we’re asking for, we’ll just sell him on the cheap. After all, he’s got that Barcelona DNA. And we’re just lovely giving people. After the respect you’ve given us, it’s the least we can do.”

Er, no. The club’s resolve will not weaken, and the likelihood of Cesc getting restless won’t grow – after all, they are valuing him lower than the 28 year old striker they bought two weeks ago. Doesn’t that just make you feel so…wanted?

To me, these are the words of a man who has decided to end his presidency with a grand gesture, but is rapidly discovering that the deal is not the surefire winner he believed it to be, as the other parties in the affair aren’t playing along. That Cesc will join Barcelona one day is irrelevant to him – he wants him to return under his watch, which ends on June 30. Don’t believe that his claim that the Cesc deal should be completed pre-World Cup is for the benefit of the player – it is purely because once the World Cup ends, someone else will be in power, and take the credit.

We have absolutely no reason to budge. If I were in the Arsenal boardroom, these quotes would be making me smile. As Laporta gets more desperate, it becomes ever more likely that Cesc will stay.

As you all know by now, the Cesc transfer saga took an interesting turn yesterday, with Arsenal turning down an opening bid believed to be around the £30m mark. But it was not the rejection that made the headlines – that we would dismiss their initial offer was inevitable – but the manner and force with which it was delivered. In case you haven’t seen it, here is the statement in full:

“Arsenal captain Cesc Fabregas is under contract with the Club until the summer of 2015. He is a highly-valued member of the team and part of our future plans.”

“We have followed recent speculation linking Cesc with a move away from the Club but as there has never been any official approach for him, only two informal exchanges, in which we made it abundantly clear that we have no interest in transferring Cesc, we have refrained from publicly passing comment. However, yesterday evening we received an offer from Barcelona for Cesc and in response, we immediately and resolutely told them once again that we have no intention of selling our captain.”

“To be clear, we will not make any kind of counterproposal or enter into any discussion. Barcelona have publicly stated that they will respect our position and we expect that they will keep their word.”

I have deliberately waited a day before commenting on this, because I was interested to see what reaction this would produce in the written press, and also on those blogs where all news is spun in a negative way. The reason for my interest was simple – this is such a comprehensive and clear statement that it is impossible to interpret it in any way other than intended.

The final paragraph is the real killer – by ‘expecting’ Barcelona to respect our position, we are denying them the opportunity to continue their very public tapping up without losing a great deal of face. That much is apparent when you look at how the press have reacted – instead of the usual varying interpretations, they have unanimously agreed that we are right to stand firm. The solitary contrary voice is one claiming that Cesc himself is unsettled by the action, a laughable concept given how Wenger will have made his position clear in their ‘amazing conversation’.

The situation is now clear – one false move from Barcelona and they become the bad guys in the eyes of neutrals, and as I’ve said before, once the media get their claws into you, the authorities follow. We hold all the cards.

Prior to this response, Barcelona had plenty of avenues open to them. But they can no longer attempt to unsettle Cesc in public, or credibly talk about his ‘Barcelona DNA’. The only way they can avoid utilising the correct and proper route of raising their bid is to hope for a transfer request from the player. They may be waiting a while.

This is by no means the end of the story, but after putting our foot down so comprehensively, we cannot bend unless the offer skyrockets. Barcelona are now aware of this, and crucially, our captain will respect that position. Every player has their price, but we have made it abundantly clear that we have no need to accept anything less than he is worth, perhaps more.

Our captain has shown the club due respect by handing us control. And now that we’ve got it, we’re making a stand. Be proud, be very very proud.

A stag weekend and a loss of internet connection have prevented me from blogging over the past week, but in truth there has been very little to talk about – the Cesc saga rumbles on without a solitary bid from Barcelona, who have rapidly descended into being the most despicable club in terms of how they go about their transfer business.

But with the announcement of the final England squad yesterday, there was at last some news regarding someone else in the squad. Unfortunately, that news was a hammer blow to Theo Walcott, whose apparently nailed on position in the squad was ripped from under his feet by Fabio Capello.

In fairness to the England manager, Walcott has been inconsistent at best since that memorable hattrick in Croatia. There have been glimpses of his outrageous ability, but they have been fleeting. Too often he is sent on as an impact substitute, only to make no apparent difference. In the end, his one-dimensional play has cost him his place.

While his omission can be explained in those terms, it is still surprising for two reasons. The first is that Walcott is a big game player. Look at the matches he is remembered for – his first goal for the club in the Carling Cup final, his run against Liverpool in the Champions League, the Croatia hattrick, and his display against Barcelona a couple of months back – there is a pattern. While he disappoints in the ‘regular’ games, he has sparked to life against the top opposition, precisely the sort he would have been asked to face this summer.

But more than that, his absence is a surprise when you look at the man replacing him – Shaun Wright-Phillips. If Walcott has missed out due to inconsistency, why is the City man there? Even though I had an inkling that Walcott was in danger (due to him playing both friendlies and not doing much in either), I figured that if he was dropped, Adam Johnson was his obvious replacement. After all, the youngster has been comprehensively outperforming Wright-Phillips since joining the same club.

Walcott’s reaction was mature, but now he needs to get angry. He needs to take this as a personal rebuke and use it to spark a determination never to have another unhappy World Cup experience. Not many can say they have suffered from World Cup selection drama twice by the time they are 21. He needs to improve, and he now has a few months to refocus and start again. As Goonerholic points out, his preparations for last season were hampered by playing both senior and Under-21 internationals in the summer – there are no such problems this time around.

So now eleven remain – we still have a decent representation at the World Cup, although if you take the departing Gallas and Senderos out of the equation we have nine travelling to South Africa.

Speaking of the World Cup, the lovely people at Sportingbet are putting together a terrific promotion for all those who fancy their chances of predicting results at the event. All you have to do is pick which team will win each of the 48 group stage matches (team 1, team 2, draw) and also who will lift the trophy. If you get 45 or more correct (and the tournament winner), you will win a share of £1,000,000. Even if your prediction skills are as ropey as mine, you start winning prizes as soon as you get 25 games correct. You don’t even need to predict the scores – just the match winners.

Here is the full prize list (all prizes shared between those qualifying for that particular band):

45+ games correct and outright winner: £1,000,000 cash
40-48 games correct: £40,000 in free bets
35-39 games correct: £35,000 in free bets
30-34 games correct: £30,000 in free bets
25-29 games correct: £25,000 in free bets

Not too shabby. To play, you need to place a qualifying bet (£10 on any sport between now and June 11), and you’ll get a play code. Further bets will earn you more codes.

As an extra bonus, if you are a new user, click here or on the banner in the top right, and you’ll get a £25 sign-up bonus after registering. If you already have an account, you can get straight to the prediction action by clicking here.

Enjoy. And buy me a pint if you win, m’kay?